Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
824 FXUS64 KBMX 170022 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 722 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 702 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across the northwest portions of Central Alabama for Thursday. To avoid heat- related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Hot and humid conditions will continue to be the weather story for the short-term. The existing Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 7PM tonight, before being allowed to expire. However, the need for a smaller Heat Advisory exits tomorrow in some of our NW zones, with another one going into effect Thursday AM. Much like today, that one will expire at 7PM tomorrow, with heat index values above 105 degrees. Thankfully, the disturbance in the Gulf (Invest 93L) will begin to slightly suppress the upper-level ridge into the weekend, allowing for temperatures to "fall" back into the low-90s. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should also increase tomorrow as the western bands of Invest 93L work into the region under SE flow. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Invest 93L will continue to meander west along the Gulf shoreline, before eventually working inland sometime in the next 24-48 hours. The main impact with Invest 93L is expected to be the heavy rainfall, with flooding rains expected in Louisiana. For us locally, the eastern most rain bands could work into our western zones by Friday, but no weather impacts are anticipated. As the disturbance continues to move inland, it should allow for our area to remain disturbed as well, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances likely through the weekend. It still looks like the ridge will begin to build back in by Monday, with afternoon highs rebounding to the mid-90s by Tuesday. Given the signals for the upcoming pattern, it appears as if we could be dealing with an extended period of heat headlines by Wednesday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 All TAF sites are currently VFR. Low stratus will move in/develop from the S/SE toward morning for MGM, have MVFR mention 12-16z. TCL could get grazed by an SHRA for a couple of hours this evening before convection dies off for the night. Otherwise more convection is expected for Thu afternoon. Only confident enough for a mention at MGM for now. Winds will be E-SE from 6-9kts with mixing for Thu. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. Also, AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX has been added at ASN until further notice due to missing sky group in obs. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will remain limited, with MinRH values continuing to climb into the weekend. Winds will also generally range under 10 MPH for most of the next week, with rain chances remaining in the forecast as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 94 72 93 / 10 20 10 50 Anniston 73 91 73 91 / 10 20 10 50 Birmingham 75 94 74 92 / 10 20 10 60 Tuscaloosa 76 93 75 91 / 20 20 10 70 Calera 75 91 74 90 / 10 20 10 60 Auburn 74 90 73 91 / 10 30 10 50 Montgomery 75 92 74 93 / 10 50 10 70 Troy 72 90 72 92 / 10 60 10 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM.../44/ LONG TERM..../44/ AVIATION...08