945
FXUS64 KBMX 060020
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
620 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025

 - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through
   Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025

One more day of rain is anticipated, as the "conveyer belt of
moisture" remains in place. However, troughing will begin to drop
south through the Midwest during the evening hours of Sunday. This
will allow for the conveyer belt to be shut off, as the cold front
cuts the moisture by Monday. With that being said, rain chances
could actually expand during the day on Sunday, as the trough is
forming a bit farther to the west. This will allow for the low
pressure and cold front to work farther north, bringing better
forcing with it. This rain shouldn`t be much more than showers, with
it quickly exiting the region by Monday morning.

Fog will also be possible tonight and tomorrow night, given a lack of
winds and plenty of moisture at the surface. This fog is likely to
be patchy in some areas, but quite dense in others. Depending on how
fast winds decouple, widespread dense fog will be possible, and that
will be something we`ll keep an eye on here the next two nights.

Conditions will briefly stabilize behind this front, with most of
the region falling below freezing by Tuesday morning. From here,
temperatures will gradually warm, before isolated rain chances
return ahead of another system on Thursday AM. This system will once
again allow for cold air to get reinforced across the region, with
temperatures continuing to run slightly below average into next
weekend.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025

Light rain showers remain possible off/on through much of the
forecast for MGM/AUO, but the NRN sites should remain generally
rain-free. There is currently a large swath of moisture/stratus
noted on satellite by way of MVFR to IFR cigs. Conditions should
deteriorate further for some (BHM/AUO) to LIFR during the late
night hours after ~8z. However, sites should improve during the
morning with NRN sites (TCL/BHM/EET) going VFR ~ 18z. Further S
for MGM/AUO, it may take a couple of more hours for conditions to
improve.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will remain above 50% for most of the next seven days,
even with rain chances tapering off by tomorrow. Before this
happens, one last push of rain is anticipated on Sunday. This will
wet fuels enough to keep the fire weather concerns limited through
at least the middle of the upcoming workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     33  53  30  57 /  10  10   0  20
Anniston    37  53  35  58 /  20  20  10  20
Birmingham  37  53  36  57 /  10  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  36  54  37  60 /  10  20  10  20
Calera      36  55  36  60 /  20  20  10  20
Auburn      42  53  40  57 /  40  60  10  30
Montgomery  41  53  41  59 /  40  50  10  20
Troy        42  52  42  60 /  50  70  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08