638
FXUS64 KBMX 021858
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
158 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast
  by Friday, with the best chances late Saturday night through
  Monday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches
  across the southern and central sections of the region, with
  locally higher possible.

- We will begin to see more seasonable temperatures beginning
  Tuesday and persisting into the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Overall, we are looking at a cold front to our north and a weak
trough to our south. Over the next 48 hours, we will see the
front stall out without ever really reaching the area. At the
same time, a shortwave disturbance in the Gulf will slide
northward along the trough, developing a low-pressure system as
it moves. Conceptually, the models are all performing well with
overall cause and effect; the main challenges lie with model
progression and the expected position of the front. Model
consensus last week placed the front farther south and the low
farther west, with moisture pooling along the front-a setup that
would have resulted in copious rainfall for the state. Over the
past few days, models have trended slower with the front and
farther east with the low, essentially cutting off the best
moisture from the state and forecast area. Over the last two
runs, trends favor the front stalling slightly farther north
while the low moves into the Mississippi Delta region. This
scenario appears reasonable and plausible given climatological
patterns for stalling fronts this time of year.

So what does this mean for rainfall potential over the weekend?
Radar currently shows light echoes working into southern Alabama,
with good coverage along the coast as well as the east coast of
Florida. These two areas are almost banding around the low to our
southwest. For the rest of the day and tonight, we should only
see a modest increase in rain chances to the north, while
southern areas may see decent coverage into the evening.
Overnight, most activity will retreat back to the south before
beginning a slow northward crawl on Saturday. Areas north of I-
85 will generally see isolated to scattered rain chances during
the day on Saturday; while it will not be a complete washout, any
showers that do form will likely be efficient rainmakers. Rain
chances ramp up significantly Saturday night through Sunday as
the low swings through the area, bringing the highest totals for
the event. Regarding expected accumulation, latest probabilities
indicate an 80-95% chance that most locations will receive at
least half an inch of rain through Sunday night. Probabilities
for exceeding 1 inch remain high at 75-90%. However, chances for
2 inches or more drop to 30-50% in the north and 60-80% in the
south, while probabilities for greater than 3 inches are only 10-
20% in the north and 30-40% in the south. Overall, there is
roughly an 80% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rain across
the area, with lower chances for higher totals.

By Tuesday, a strong trough is expected to slide down into the
area, clearing the stalled front and ushering in more seasonable
weather through the end of next week. High temperatures may only
reach the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s by this time next week.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Onshore low-level flow will continue to bring increasing moisture
through the period. Shower chances remain on the lower side this
afternoon, though VCSH was included for MGM and AUO. Low clouds
are expected to develop before 10Z and persist through 14-15Z.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
south on Saturday, but activity should remain south of the
southern terminals through 18Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly flow increases through the weekend, bringing higher
rain chances. Broadly, the area will see around 1 inch of rain by
Sunday night. Chances of receiving 2 inches or more drop to 30-
50% across the north and 60-80% in the south, while probabilities
for exceeding 3 inches remain lower at 10-20% in the north and 30-
40% in the south. Overall, there is roughly an 80% chance of
seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall across Central Alabama, with
lower probabilities for higher totals. Drier and cooler air
returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  88  68  78 /  10  40  60  90
Anniston    69  88  69  77 /  10  40  60  90
Birmingham  71  88  70  78 /  10  30  60  90
Tuscaloosa  70  91  69  81 /  10  30  60  90
Calera      70  87  69  78 /  10  40  60  90
Auburn      69  85  69  75 /  20  50  60 100
Montgomery  71  88  71  78 /  30  50  80 100
Troy        69  86  69  78 /  30  60  80 100

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16