Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
707 FXUS64 KBMX 142325 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 620 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 Just a few echoes are around right now, with most on the decreasing side of things. A few outflows may continue and could generate a brief shower through 9 pm, but chances really are too low now to mention after 7 pm. Best chances would be in the southwest. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Tuesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 Tuesday, easterly low and mid-level flow will bring increased moisture advection to the eastern half of the region. Due to the easterly flow interacting with the flow around the high pressure convergence could occur. Isolated diurnal convection is expected tomorrow, with greater coverage possible where convergence occurs. Heat indices will be in the triple digits today with higher values possible tomorrow. Will assess if a heat advisory is needed tomorrow. 24/CKC && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 Tuesday night, an area of low pressure will move westward across FL and into the eastern Gulf. This low should slowly move west and strengthen through Wednesday and Thursday. Models diverge heavily on the strength of this low, and how quickly the high pressure breaks down over the southeast US. With stronger mid and upper level flow remaining out of the east across the northern Gulf, recent model runs have started making a westward trend with the area of rain, taking the activity further into Louisiana. Will watch this trend. Despite the location, the low will bring plenty of east and southeasterly flow prevailing over the state, with moisture and warm air advection. There should be periods of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, though there is a lot of uncertainty of where the widespread activity will be, with a lot of details depending on how far west the low moves, and also how strong it becomes. Diurnal activity is expected across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, with more widespread rain across the southern fourth of the state, closer to that low. By Friday the eastern CONUS will be under a fairly zonal upper level pattern, with scattered diurnal chances remaining over the state through the weekend. PW values will be near max with decent instabilities each day. Temperatures may take on a flipped pattern from the norm, with higher temperatures in the northwest and lower high temperatures in the southeast, closer to the cloud cover and increased rain chances. Heat indices could hit triple digits Wednesday and Thursday in the far northwest, though overall trends in temps should be cooler by the end of the week. By the weekend, temperatures may start a warming trend. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 VFR conditions expected with light winds and northerly winds for much of the forecast. There could be an isolated shower/storm, but overall coverage is too low to mention as high pressure will be in control. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 95 72 94 / 10 20 20 40 Anniston 73 94 74 92 / 10 20 20 50 Birmingham 73 96 75 95 / 10 20 10 40 Tuscaloosa 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 10 40 Calera 74 94 75 93 / 10 20 10 40 Auburn 75 94 74 91 / 10 30 30 60 Montgomery 75 96 75 94 / 10 20 20 60 Troy 74 96 73 92 / 10 30 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...16