767
FXUS64 KBMX 221058
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
558 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

The trend continues to show a lack of moisture through Sunday
afternoon. Have backed off of the slight chance for this afternoon
in the far southeast and will now go with a dry forecast. Looks
like the ridge is going to win out of the weak disturbance that is
currently in southeastern Georgia. A weak boundary will approach
the north late Sunday afternoon, but looks like it will hold off
entering the area until after sunset. Will go with some low end
chances for rain but remain below 20 percent, so will stay dry
with this forecast. Biggest issues for the weekend will be the
heat. Highs will be in the mid 90s today and mid to upper 90s on
Sunday. We should remain below advisory criteria of 105 heat
index, but it will be close.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

Key messages:

- Hot conditions continue into early next week with heat indices
  at or above 105 possible, especially Tuesday afternoon.

- One or more complexes of showers and storms may provide some
  temporary respite from the heat Wednesday but also gusty winds.
  However, details remain uncertain this far out.

Subtropical ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains
to start the period, while a trough amplifies over the Northeast
CONUS. This will place Central Alabama under weak northwest flow
aloft. A weak cold front will become diffuse across Kentucky and
Tennessee Sunday night, while a lee trough will be located along
the East Coast. A pre-frontal axis of PWATs near 2 inches will
move into our northern counties Sunday night. This may result in a
couple showers and storms moving into our northern counties from
the north Sunday night into Monday morning, though mid-level lapse
rates will be poor with weak shear and limited
forcing/convergence. As is typical this time of year, there won`t
be any cool air with the front but there will be a pronounced
moisture gradient, with the better moisture shifting to the
southern counties by Monday afternoon. Widely scattered showers
and storms will be possible though models seem to be backing off
on coverage. With less coverage, temperatures will warm up. Dew
points will mix out some in the afternoon, but not quite as much
as previous days given the increased moisture, so heat indices may
reach 105 degrees in spots.

The moisture boundary will become oriented northwest to southeast
by Tuesday with diurnal convection possible along and southwest of
it under weak ridging/flow aloft, though there is some spread in
the placement of this boundary. Prior to convection, temperatures
will warm into the upper 90s. The placement of the moisture
boundary will determine where dew points mix out the most, but
with the hotter temperatures a heat advisory appears likely for at
minimum the southern and western counties. A shortwave in
northwest flow aloft will result in troughing temporarily
developing over the Southeast CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. One or
more MCSs could move through during this time with increasing
moisture. Wednesday will see the highest rain chances of the
period with potential for a brief respite from the heat depending
on the timing of the MCS(s). Nothing really jumps out too much in
the convective environment just yet, but will keep an eye out for
the potential for gusty winds with any cold pools. It`s too far
out for any details on these MCSs. Ridging builds back into the
area by the end of the week causing the heat to return, though
some troughing and associated rain chances may linger near our
southeast counties.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

VFR conditions dominate the period. It looks as though winds will
be light and variable throughout. Not much in the way of cloud
cover with a few cumulus around 070-090 and some cirrus.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue through Sunday. 20 foot winds will
be light and variable today, and become westerly Sunday at 4 to 8
mph. Afternoon RH values should range from 30 to 40 percent each
day through Sunday. Overnight RH values will be above 80 percent.
Scattered rain chances return on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  70  97  73 /  10   0  10  30
Anniston    94  72  96  74 /  10   0  10  30
Birmingham  96  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  20
Tuscaloosa  95  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  20
Calera      96  73  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Auburn      93  73  96  74 /  10   0   0  10
Montgomery  97  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        97  71  98  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16