Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
313
FNUS74 KBMX 012329
FWSBMX
Spot Forecast for Oak Mountain...Shelby EMA
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
629 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 CDT on October 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Ground and near-ground conditions: RH values will recover to the
95-100 percent range overnight. Lowest humidity values on Friday
should be around 50 percent. Low level wind direction will remain
fairly steady out of the southeast tonight through Friday, with no
large scale shifts in direction expected at this time. Calm to light
wind speeds overnight. Prevailing wind speeds will be around 5-10 mph
during the daytime hours on Friday.
Transport winds and smoke plume: A south to southeast transport wind
will generally keep the smoke plume over the west and middle portion
of the Birmingham metro area. See latest Hysplit model run output
for details.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....5.
LVORI...............6.
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........19 28 35 25 21 12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............83 77 75 73 71 70
RH..............57 75 79 87 93 97
20 FT wind......SE 5 SE 5 SE 3 SE 2 SE 2 SE 1
20 FT wind gust.11 11 10 8 6 6
20 FT wind dir..140 130 130 140 140 130
Mix hgt (ft)....500 400 500 400 400 400
Transport wind..SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7 S 7 S 6
Dispersion idx..6 5 5 3 3 3
LVORI...........3 3 4 6 6 9
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6 to 7
mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 40 late in the morning, then
decreasing to 28 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........12 18 29 40 42 41
Weather cov..... S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 20
Temp............69 71 81 88 89 87
RH..............100 97 74 60 57 57
20 FT wind......SE 1 SE 2 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 E 2
20 FT wind gust.6 6 8 7 6 6
20 FT wind dir..130 140 140 150 150 110
Mix hgt (ft)....400 900 2700 4400 4500 3500
Transport wind..S 6 SE 7 S 8 S 8 SE 6 E 6
Dispersion idx..3 3 4 42 31 25
LVORI...........9 8 3 3 1 2
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Slight chance of showers overnight.
CWR.................20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south 3 to
8 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 10 late in the evening, then
decreasing to 2 late in the evening.
LVORI...............6.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........41 44 62 57 53 61
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
CWR.............20 10 10 10 20 20
Temp............83 76 74 72 71 71
RH..............68 87 93 100 100 100
20 FT wind......E 2 E 2 SE 2 SE 1 N 0 N 0
20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 6 5 4
20 FT wind dir..090 100 150 130 000 000
Mix hgt (ft)....900 500 800 700 400 400
Transport wind..E 6 SE 7 SE 7 S 7 S 6 S 5
Dispersion idx..7 4 10 3 3 2
LVORI...........2 5 9 9 9 10
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
showers in the morning, then chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 40 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 22 late in the morning, then
decreasing to 13 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............7.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60 58 43 52 73 74 76 77 79 80 82 82
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 40 40 40 40 40
Temp............71 70 72 75 79 82 84 86 86 86 84 82
RH..............100 100 100 94 84 76 71 65 65 64 69 73
20 FT wind dir..N N E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind dir..000 000 100 120 130 130 130 130 130 120 120 120
20 FT wind spd..0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.7
Transp wind dir.S SE SE S S S S S S SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.3 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6
Dispersion idx..2 2 2 2 3 18 23 25 23 22 20 13
LVORI...........10 9 9 9 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4
$$
Forecaster...Westland
Requested by...Mindy Nash
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2622816.5/BMX
.DELDT 10/01/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0