746
FNUS74 KBMX 021007
FWSBMX

Spot Forecast for Oak Mountain...Shelby EMA
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
507 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on October 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Moisture increases today with RH values dropping to around 50
percent in the afternoon at the Oak Mountain wildfire. 20ft winds
remain light during the day while transport winds are out of the
south around 7-9 mph. Scattered showers may develop with daytime
heating this afternoon though most rain should be fairly light,
with only a low chance for lightning. Good RH recoveries are
forecast again tonight with transport winds remaining out of the
south to southeast around 6 mph. Scattered to numerous showers
are expected on Saturday afternoon, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as well, though more widespread rainfall holds off
until Saturday night and Sunday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 36 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 22 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........15     24     24     39     47     41
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  CHANCE
CWR.............0      10     10     10     20     30
Temp............70     71     81     88     89     89
RH..............93     93     71     54     54     51
20 FT wind......SE 2   SE 2   S 2    S 3    S 2    SE 2
20 FT wind gust.6      6      7      6      6      6
20 FT wind dir..130    140    160    170    160    130
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1000   2500   4700   5500   4800
Transport wind..SE 6   SE 9   S 9    S 7    S 6    SE 6
Dispersion idx..3      4      4      39     36     32
LVORI...........6      6      2      2      1      2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 10 percent in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....12 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........52     54     42     24     40     52
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............30     30     10     10     10     10
Temp............85     76     74     72     71     71
RH..............61     85     92     100    100    100
20 FT wind......SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   SE 1   N 0    N 0
20 FT wind gust.7      6      6      6      4      4
20 FT wind dir..140    120    150    140    000    000
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   400    500    500    400    400
Transport wind..SE 6   SE 6   S 6    S 6    S 6    SE 3
Dispersion idx..12     0      4      3      3      2
LVORI...........2      5      9      9      9      10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    in the morning, then showers likely and chance
                    of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 23 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 16 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........64     55     61     60     71     78
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  CHANCE
CWR.............10     30     30     30     60     60
Temp............70     71     78     85     86     83
RH..............100    100    85     66     63     67
20 FT wind......N 0    SE 1   SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   SE 2
20 FT wind gust.4      5      6      6      6      6
20 FT wind dir..000    120    120    140    140    130
Mix hgt (ft)....400    900    1800   3300   4100   2300
Transport wind..SE 3   SE 5   SE 6   SE 6   SE 7   E 6
Dispersion idx..2      2      3      20     26     16
LVORI...........10     10     4      4      2      3

$$
Forecaster...JDavis
Requested by...Mindy Nash
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2622816.7/BMX
.DELDT 10/02/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0