990
FXUS65 KBOI 151559
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
959 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will move across western
Montana today bringing breezy northwest winds this afternoon.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. There
is enough moisture near the NV border for showers and
thunderstorms to form this afternoon. Main threats with the
storms will be wind gusts up to 45 mph and areas of blowing dust
this afternoon. The best dynamics will generally be over SE
Idaho this afternoon and evening. Haze and smoke continue to
increase from area wildfires. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Smoke aloft with minimal surface haze,
especially across southeast Oregon near KBNO. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms east of KMYL and south of KTWF this
afternoon/evening. Any storms may produce gusts to 40 kt, but
are unlikely to impact terminals. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt this
morning, increasing to 10- 20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt this
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR with patchy smoke aloft. Otherwise, mostly clear.
Surface winds: NW 6-10 kt this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt
with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level
trough will move by to our north today, sending a weak cold
front through our area. Temperatures today will drop 5-10
degrees from yesterday, ending up near normal. Most areas will
see northwest gusts of 20-30 mph this afternoon, but peak gusts
of 30-40 mph are possible in the Upper Treasure Valley east of
Boise this afternoon, as well as between Ontario and Baker City
this evening. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will
result in elevated fire weather conditions. Additionally, smoke
from fires around the region will impact our area. The main
contributor will be the Cram Fire in north-central Oregon which
produced a large smoke plume that drifted southeast yesterday
evening. Finally, while better moisture will remain generally
east of our area, there will be just enough for isolated showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along the
higher terrain south of Twin Falls and in the central Idaho
mountains east of McCall. Any storms could produce gusts of
40-50 mph.

The upper trough will move east on Wednesday, resulting in dry
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be similar to today with
lighter winds and little to no chance of showers/thunderstorms
across the area. On Thursday, an upper ridge over the
southwestern US will build north, bringing hotter temperatures
back to the area. Highs are expected to be around 5 degrees
above normal, with a 30-60% chance of highs 100 degrees or
higher in the Treasure Valley. Very limited monsoonal moisture
may drift north on Thursday with the expansion of the ridge,
resulting in a minimal (less than 10%) chance of
showers/thunderstorms.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Hot temperatures and a
very low thunderstorm threat will continue on Friday as the
upper level ridge and limited moisture remain in place. On
Saturday, an upper level trough will start to deepen along the
coast, with ensembles generally bringing the trough slowly
inland to our north early next week. This will keep higher
shower/thunderstorm chances to our north, but the trough should
cool temperatures back to near normal. Moderate zonal to
southwest flow aloft will bring breezy afternoon winds across
much of the area through the period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....ST