617
FXUS65 KBOI 292006
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
206 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering moisture
is supporting afternoon and evening thunderstorms today. Storms
are initiating along the Nevada border, and will develop near
Baker County and in S-Central Idaho. Enough moisture exists for
storms to produce moderate to locally heavy rainfall, as well as
small hail. With the lower atmosphere drying out, outflow winds
are also a concern, with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Outflow
gusts could persist even into areas that don`t see any storms,
with some high resolution models resolving an outflow moving
from Baker County down into the Treasure Valley. This morning`s
sounding showed some instability present at Boise, so there is
some potential for cumulus buildups even over the Central ID
Mtns.

Smoke is still present, mostly aloft, from the Emigrant fire.
Overnight it could settle near the surface, making for a
potentially smokey Saturday morning. Saturday and Sunday, an
upper ridge amplifies and the area begins properly drying out as
stable conditions set in. Temperature will warm several degrees
each day through Sunday, putting lower valleys in the lower 90s
and mountains in the mid 80s this weekend. As the upper flow
becomes more southerly along the ridge axis, smoke could be
deflected north and west.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Low pressure off the PacNW
coast and high pressure over the inland west remain stationary
through the long term. Southerly flow will pull weak monsoon
moisture northward Tuesday through Friday, enough for some
models to show a 10% chance of precipitation, but others remain
dry even during this period. That being said, there is
significant uncertainty in the details even though the overall
pattern hasn`t changed much. A few shortwaves seem to pass
through at different times among leading models, which would
provide favorable dynamics for precipitation. The most likely
spots to see precipitation is SE OR and high terrain in ID.
Temperatures remain around 5 degrees above normal under the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
in e-central Oregon, and higher terrain surrounding the Snake
Plain in Idaho through this evening. Thunderstorms capable of
moderate/heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusts to 30-45 kt. Haze
from wildfire smoke may reduce to MVFR visibility Sat morning.
Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt outside of storms. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-10 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Haze from wildfire smoke. Light variable but
generally NW winds this afternoon. A brief 25 kt outflow gust
from storms to the far NW this evening is possible.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Continued haze from wildfire smoke.
Surface winds generally S-E 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM