025
FXUS65 KBOI 011559
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
959 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge over the area this morning
will shift east of our region this afternoon as an upper level
trough approaches from the northwest. Southwest flow aloft will
usher in a mild airmass, allowing for high temperatures to
increase by around 10 degrees from yesterday, aided by mostly
clear skies. The result will be temperatures close to 70 degrees
in the lower valleys today. Have adjusted the forecast today to
match the warmer trends in the latest guidance. Winds will
become locally breezy this afternoon, which will continue
tonight into Sunday.

The Pacific trough will move inland just to the north tonight,
bringing showers mainly north of a line from Rome, Oregon to
Boise to Atlanta, Idaho. The best chance of showers will be
across the far north near McCall and Baker City, where
precipitation chances will range from 50 to 80%. Precipitation
amounts will be light, with only around a tenth or two of an
inch expected in the northern mountains.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Light rain showers and areas of mtn obscuration
developing in NE Oregon & W-central Idaho (KBKE/KMYL vicinity)
beginning late afternoon. Areas of LLWS will be considered for 18z
TAF issuance for periods Sunday morning. Surface winds: variable up
to 8 kt, then SW-SE 5-15 kt with 15-25 kt gusts this afternoon.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt, afternoon gusts to 15-20 kt.
Lowering ceilings with a 15% chance of light rain or sprinkles early
Sunday.

Sunday Outlook...Scattered light showers moving from NW to SE Sunday
morning. Periods of low VFR/MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration
in precip and low clouds. Snow levels lowering to 5000-8000 feet
MSL, lowest on the back edge of precip. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15
kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
October 2025 was the 70th warmest October for Boise, Idaho since
records began in 1875 with an average temperature of 52.7
degrees. It was also the 20th wettest October, recording 1.76
inches of rainfall. This was the third straight October with no
snow recorded.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...The axis of an upper
level ridge will move east of our area today as an upper trough
begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Southwest flow aloft
will usher in a mild air mass, allowing high temperatures to
increase by around 10 degrees from Friday. Warming will be aided
by mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Winds will become locally
breezy this afternoon, which will continue tonight into Sunday.

The trough will move inland to our north tonight, bringing
showers mainly north of a line from Rome OR to Boise to Atlanta
ID. The best chance of showers will be across the far north
near McCall and Baker City, where precipitation chances will
range from 50 to 80%. Showers will taper off Sunday morning.
Snow levels will be near 9-10kft tonight, lowering to 7-9kft
Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts will be light, with only
around a tenth or two of an inch expected in the northern
mountains. Cooler air behind the trough will drop high
temperatures by around 10 degrees on Sunday.

On Monday, another trough near the coast will resume southwest
flow across our area. Increasing moisture will bring a 20-50%
chance of showers Monday afternoon through Monday night, with
the highest chance across southeast Oregon and the west-central
Idaho mountains. High temperatures will be similar in most areas
to Sunday, except around 5 degrees of warming near the Nevada
border. Breezy conditions will redevelop as the system
approaches.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A plume of Pacific
moisture residing over the region will generate showers through
Tuesday morning and early afternoon, favoring higher elevations.
Concurrently, southwest flow will begin to develop ahead of the
next trough, amplifying a ridge over the forecast area by mid
to late Tuesday and temporarily lowering precip chances. Warm
frontal precip will then arrive from the southwest by Wednesday
morning and spread into east Oregon and west-central Idaho.
Temperatures are forecast to reach 5-10 degrees above normal
during the day in this warm sector, despite thickening cloud
cover and increasing precip chances. As the trough axis moves in
from the west, a cold front will arrive by later Wednesday and
support showers, gusty winds, and snow levels down to 6500-8000
feet MSL. Max temperatures are also expected to lower several
degrees for Thursday behind the front. However, models are out
of agreement on strength and moisture availability with this
trough, reducing forecast confidence on shower coverage and
temperatures. Current precip chances range from 45-70% for the
north, and 20-45% for the south Wed into Thu. Thereafter, a
slightly colder, more robust trough is expected late Thursday
through late Friday, thanks to a prominent polar jet enhanced
with ample Pacific moisture. Despite being a quick-hit, the GFS
and ECMWF ensembles are favoring notable precip totals for the
mountains while the Canadian ensembles suggest substantial
weakening as the trough moves through the PacNW. Snow levels are
forecast to lower to around 5500-6500 feet MSL, with
temperatures remaining within a few degrees of normal for the
end of the week.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....SH