907
FXUS65 KBOI 160940
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
340 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Today will be dry
with near normal temperatures as westerly flow aloft continues
behind an exiting upper level trough. It will be locally breezy
across south-central ID with afternoon gusts 15-25 mph. On
Thursday and Friday, an upper level ridge over the southwestern
US will shift to the north. This will bring hotter temperatures,
with highs around 5 degrees above normal. This will place highs
in the Treasure Valley near 100 degrees, with a 20-50% chance
of reaching the 100 degree mark. An uptick in mid-level moisture
will accompany this pattern as the flow aloft becomes more
southwesterly. This will bring a 20% chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the higher terrain along the ID/NV border each
afternoon and evening, with lesser chances (10% or lower)
elsewhere. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will persist to our
north. The trough will enhance west to southwest flow aloft,
allowing breezy conditions with gusts 15-30 mph, highest across
the central ID mountains, to develop each afternoon as winds
aloft mix down to the surface. Regional fires, especially the
Cram Fire in north-central Oregon, will continue to send smoke
into our area at times over the next couple of days.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The pattern over the
extended will be dominated by an upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest, with ensembles in good agreement about this
pattern. Despite being on the southern fringe of the trough,
temperatures should cool to near or slightly below normal
with breezy conditions. Some model solutions bring a deeper
trough into the Northwest early next week with potential for
showers and thunderstorms and well below normal temperatures,
but confidence on this scenario is low. For now, the forecast
includes a 5-10% chance of precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of smoke, mainly aloft. Low
confidence in MVFR surface haze at KBNO today. Surface winds:
W-NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Smoke increasing this afternoon,
but likely to remain VFR. Surface winds: variable less than 6
kt this morning, becoming NW 5-10 kt this afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST