949
FXUS65 KBOI 232325
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
525 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms in southern areas Monday afternoon and
  early evening.

- Little chance of thunderstorms the rest of the week, except a
  slight chance in the central ID mountains Wednesday afternoon,
  and near the NV/ID border Friday-Sunday afternoons.

- Warming Monday and Tuesday, holding level Wednesday, then
  gradually cooling the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/...
Issued 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
Thunderstorm threat shifting out of Twin Falls County late today
then dry through the night. Mid-high level moisture will increase
from the southwest overnight and Monday morning with scattered
thunderstorms developing by noon in Twin Falls County, early
afternoon in Owyhee County, and mid afternoon in southeast
Oregon, lasting until sunset. Clouds will increase but storms
should stay south of the Snake River in ID, and south of Burns-
Ontario in OR. Monday will also be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than
today even with increasing clouds, as a short wave ridge aloft
comes in from northern California.  The ridge and thunderstorms
will exit Monday night but further slight warming will continue
Tuesday, with high temps reaching the mid-upper 90s in the Snake
Basin and 85 to 95 elsewhere.

 &&

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Issued 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
Generally dry and breezy conditions will persist throughout
much of the long-term period. Lingering moisture will allow for
a 15-30% chance of precipitation and a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly near the ID/NV border
and the Central ID Mountains. Beyond Wednesday, troughing off of
the west coast will push the moisture south and east of our
area. Height falls throughout the period will allow for a slight
cooling trend, with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal
throughout the period. Uncertainty begins to increase late this
week, following the lifting of the initial trough and associated
frontal passage. However, cluster analysis is leaning towards
troughing digging back down into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/...
Issued 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026

VFR. Isolated thunderstorms south and east of KTWF this
afternoon and early evening. Patchy wildfire smoke in Baker,
Malheur, and Harney counties. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt,
becoming variable under 12 kts overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: SW 5-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts to around
18 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IDZ423-426.
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for ORZ670>672.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF