717
FXUS65 KBOI 022024
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
224 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Thunderstorms will
dissipate this evening with sunset leaving dry conditions
overnight for most zones. The southern/eastern Blues in Oregon
will carry a 10-15% chance of showers overnight as an upper
trough pushes onto the Pac NW coast. Shower and thunderstorm
development will increase across SE Oregon and west-central
Idaho mtns from mid-morning Sunday through early afternoon as
the dynamic lift in advance of the upper trough taps into
elevated instabiltiy. Areas along and north of a line from
Burns to Caldwell up to Garden Valley and Yellow Pine is where
we see the best overlap of available surface energy, low-mid
level shear, and upper dynamics. The main storm threat from in
this area will be potentially severe outflow winds (up to 65
mph) with hail and heavy rain also poissible from storms.

The outflow pool that takes shape over e-central Oregon will
flush eastward Sunday evening, bringing widespread wind gusts
of 30-45 mph with more localized 45-55 mph gusts as it rolls
through SE Oregon and the Snake Plain in SW Idaho. These winds
will pick up dust along the way and have kept blowing dust
wording in the forecast.

A low chance of showers and thunderstorms hangs on Sunday night
across Baker County and the w-central Idaho mtns as the upper
trough crosses into central Idaho. Daytime heating will increase
the area of shower/storm potential with a 20-40% chance of
showers and thunderstorms wrapping around the Snake Plain by
Monday afternoon. High temperatures are 8-12 degrees cooler
than Sunday and will be accompanied by breezy northwest winds.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...West-southwest flow
Tuesday and Wednesday will keep temps hot, though about normal,
and conditions dry through Wednesday afternoon. A longwave
trough is expected to pass north on Wednesday night, bringing
increased cloud cover and some possible precipitation and
frontal wind. Though, it does not appear too significant in
recent model runs and most of the moisture is north of us. A
10-20% chance of precipitation exists across our northern areas
through early Friday. Friday evening and Saturday a blocking
high builds over the northern Pacific, putting us under cooler
northwesterly flow. While conditions remain dry, we`ll be about
5-10 degrees below normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Scattered storms this afternoon, capable
of heavy rain, small hail, 30-40 kt outflows, and localized MVFR
to LIFR conditions mainly in SE/E Oregon, and far-SW/central
ID. Mtns obscured in precip, and in vicinity of wildfires.
Surface winds outside of outflows: NW-N 5-15 kt this afternoon.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. 10% chance thunderstorms move into the vicinity
between Sun/00Z and Sun/02Z. Erratic outflow winds from
distant storms are also possible this PM. Stronger storms will
be capable of 25-35 kt gusts. Surface winds outside of storms:
NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 15- 25 kt this afternoon.

Sunday Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms for
east  Oregon and central Idaho. Thunderstorms capable of 30-45
kt outflows, and heavy rain/small hail resulting in localized
MVFR to LIFR conditions. Blowing dust possible Sunday evening.
Mtns obscured in precip, and in vicinity of wildfires. Surface
winds outside of storms: NW-SW 5-15 kt. Though strong NW frontal
winds in the evening up to 40 kt through much of the area.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening IDZ423.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening
     ORZ672>674.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM