246
FXUS65 KBOI 151535
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
935 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...Forecast remains on track this morning. Band of
showers has developed along a line extending from Stanley to
Jordan Valley and is nearly stationary. There is still around a
30% chance for the band to migrate north into the Boise Metro
at least briefly this morning, but for now is situated between
Boise and Mountain Home. Additional showers are moving north out
of Nevada into south-central Idaho, which will continue through
the day and into the evening. A 10-20% chance of thunderstorms
will also develop along our eastern border. Overall impacts from
this system will be low, with snow limited to the highest peaks
above 7000 feet. Showers will taper off by this evening, except
for the Magic Valley where they will continue overnight. Areas
of low clouds and fog across southeast Oregon should decrease by
early this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be cool and breezy
today as the low moves by to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR-LIFR in precipitation in SW and S-central ID,
and in fog/low stratus in SE OR and W-central ID. Precipitation
across Idaho this morning will last through the late afternoon,
with brief embedded thunderstorms possible near the Magic Valley
and east of our area. Snow levels 7-8 kft MSL. Surface winds:
variable 5-10kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NE-NW 5-10 kt.

KBOI...VFR with low clouds in the area. A rain band has stalled
in the vicinity, light rain continues to be possible at the
site though chances have dropped to 30%. Surface winds: W-NW
5-10 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...The closed low is
moving east northeast this morning across western Nevada, with
the low center currently near Reno. This system has brought
another round of showers into south central Idaho, which will
spread north northwest today. Current high res models continue
to show this as a less organized band of showers compared to
yesterday`s more uniform activity. However, heavy embedded
showers will be possible as dynamics increase over the course of
the day, leading to moderate precipitation totals of 0.25 to
0.50 inch, with slightly higher totals possible in the
mountains. The heavier precipitation will likely develop between
Twin Falls and Boise later this morning and remain south of a
Rome-Boise-Stanley line. The Boise area remains on the northern
edge of the heaviest precipitation, with only a 40 percent
chance of seeing greater than a tenth of an inch of rain.
Precipitation will become more showery in the afternoon and
focused in the Magic Valley and central Idaho mountains, with a
10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms also developing. Snow
levels will remain high through the event, generally 6500 to
8000 feet MSL, limiting accumulating snow to the highest peaks.
It will remain cool and breezy as the low moves through.

Precipitation will end from west to east tonight. The cool air
mass in place will allow low temperatures to dip into the 30s in
the lower valleys, resulting in potential for frost and fog.
However, steady northwest winds overnight will limit this
potential except in more sheltered areas. Ensembles show about a
25 percent chance of min temperatures below 37 degrees across
the Boise Metro Thursday morning.

Cool and dry northwest flow on Thursday and Friday will bring
mostly sunny skies, breezy afternoon winds (locally gusts to
around 30 mph southeast of Boise), and slightly below normal
temperatures.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Saturday will
continue to see broad ridging over the area, with daytime
temperatures more on the warmer side from the lower to mid 60s
for most locations. These temperatures are mostly expected for
Sunday. There is still slight guidance disagreement on the
arrival of a digging trough through Sunday, but Sunday will
generally see a 40-60% chance of precipitation across the area.
This system will bring a cooling trend, dropping peak
temperatures into the lower to mid 50s and snow levels into the
4000-5000 ft range from late Sunday to Wednesday. Snowfall and
mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out for the higher
elevations Sunday through early morning Monday. Monday and
Tuesday will see weak ridging and drier conditions. There is
considerable guidance uncertainty over another trough system
moving into the area on Wednesday; ECMWF has it becoming a
stalled upper low off California while the GFS has it as a
longwave trough slowly digging across the region. For now, a
slight chance of precipitation is expected for the highest
elevations in the West-Central ID mountains on Wednesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JY