400
FXUS65 KBOI 160229
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
829 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...High clouds from southern OR into central
ID will gradually develop into a frontal zone tonight
and Monday morning, then move east as a cold front later
Monday ahead of a Pacific upper trough moving onto the
coast. By Monday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
initiate along the cold front with a 20-30% chance of
measurable rain.  Current forecast has this.  Remainder
of forecast is on track through the week leading to a big
cooldown next weekend.  More on that later as new models
come in.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with high clouds through 17Z Monday.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms over and near
higher terrain, including near KBKE/KMYL after 18Z.
Surface winds: variable less than 10kt, becoming WNW
10-20 kt after 18Z, higher gusts near KTWF/KJER.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: WSW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with high clouds. Isolated shower/thunderstorm
after 21Z Monday. NW wind less than 10kt becoming SE
overnight, then becoming NW 10-15 kt after 18Z Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Warm and dry
southwest flow is interrupted by a weak trough moving inland
Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
will initiate in SE and E Oregon and W-Central Idaho. Much of
the prior area has about a 20% chance of precipitation and
thunderstorms. The environment will support storms capable of
25-40 mph outflow gusts. 25 mph general gusts will develop that
afternoon even outside of storms. Behind the trough, zonal flow
will set in with a return to dry and mostly clear conditions on
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Wednesday through Friday,
a ridge amplifies over the desert southwest and southern plains,
keeping our area in warm and dry southwest flow aloft. By Friday
morning a deepening Alaskan low is forecast to increase cloud
cover and push the ridge eastward. Precipitation chances increase
Saturday and Sunday to 30-50% focused in E Oregon and W-Central
Idaho. Timing of the moisture and the cold front associated with
the low seem conducive to Saturday evening storms. The front will
also bring wind gusts up to 30 mph across the area and lower snow
levels to about 6000 ft MSL by Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM