841
FXUS65 KBOI 012055
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
255 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Expect warm
temperatures this afternoon, with lower valleys seeing highs
near 70 degrees. An area of high pressure is moving east, which
will allow winds to become locally breezy this afternoon,
continuing through Sunday. A Pacific storm system will pass to
our north tonight, bringing light showers primarily to areas
north of a line from Burns, Oregon to Boise to Atlanta, Idaho.
The highest chance for rain will be in the far northern
mountains near McCall and Baker City. The Treasure Valley might
see a sprinkle or two, but any rain there will be minimal,
likely less than one hundredth of an inch. Snow levels will be
very high, holding above 9000 feet through Sunday morning before
slowly lowering to around 6500 feet Sunday afternoon in the
northern mountains. Total rainfall in the mountains will be
light, only about a tenth or two of an inch, and no snow is
expected below 8000 feet. All precipitation should end by late
Sunday morning. Clouds will increase Sunday night into Monday
ahead of a stronger system.

Showers will return Monday afternoon and evening over the higher
terrain, kicking off a prolonged wet period for the mountains.
Furthermore, breezy winds are expected across the higher terrain
of southeast Oregon Monday afternoon. Snow levels will remain
quite high Monday, between 7000 and 9000 feet, so any snowfall
will be limited to the highest peaks. Rainfall amounts of one
quarter to one half of an inch are expected Monday across the
northern mountains as moisture deepens across the region.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A cloudy and wet long term
period is on deck. Rounds of moisture will stream into the region
over the week, as an upper-level trough meanders in the Gulf of
Alaska. Embedded shortwaves troughs in the flow will provide
enhanced periods of lift as the area stays underneath southwesterly-
westerly flow aloft. In between these shortwaves troughs, brief,
weak upper-level shortwave ridging will exist. To begin Tuesday,
moisture will be riding over a weak shortwave ridge, keeping PoPs 10-
40% in lower elevations and 40-70% in higher elevations. Snow levels
at this time will be near 8000 ft MSL. Wednesday will begin the
first bigger push of moisture, with a preceding warm front in the
morning followed by a cold front in the afternoon/evening. Highest
chance PoPs for lower elevations will be 40-60%, while higher
elevations are 50-90%. Despite it being a "cold" front, the air mass
following will keep high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.
Snow levels will drop 6500-8000 feet going west-to-east in the CWA,
with gusty winds also being a concern during this time, particularly
in SE OR. While a low chance (15-20%), it is mentionable that both
the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting a small amount of instability
00z/Thu to 12z/Thu along the Boise foothills north to McCall. Was
given confidence from both long range models forecasting this slight
instability signal to keep chance of thunderstorms in forecast
grids. Variation in model solution increases Thursday and beyond
with shortwave timing and intensity. Regardless, another round of
moisture with another shortwave trough will move in sometime
Thursday, bringing widespread precipitation chances and temperatures
near normal for this time of year. Moving into the weekend time
frame, models agree on another round of cooler air and moisture
sometime Friday, before clusters paint greater variation between
solutions. The main point of contention appears to be the intensity
of an upper-level ridge building across the Western U.S., which will
determine what comes after.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Cold front will move through the area NW to SE
late Saturday into early Sunday, bringing scattered showers and
lower ceilings. Chances of MVFR conditions at all sites (except KTWF
and KJER) will increase as it does. LLWS concerns will exist
preempting and quickly following cold front passage. Surface winds:
SW-SE 5-15 kt with 15-25 kt gusts this afternoon. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W-SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt, afternoon gusts to 15-20 kt.
Lowering ceilings with a 15% chance of light rain or sprinkles early
Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH