521
FXUS65 KBOI 150322
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
922 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms continue this evening along
the Oregon and Nevada border. These storms are expected to
persist through sunset and gradually diminish by around 11 PM
MDT. Earlier storms across Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties
produced outflow wind gusts up to 56 miles per hour, and similar
gusts remain possible with ongoing activity.

Skies will generally clear of cloud cover later tonight, but
smoke will become a concern overnight through Tuesday morning.
No new fire starts have been detected on satellite within the
forecast area, though several lightning strikes were observed
and it is possible that new ignitions have occurred. The CRAM
Fire, a large new fire in Jefferson County, Oregon, is producing
a prominent smoke plume that is pushing southeast this evening.
This plume is expected to impact southeast Oregon tonight and
parts of western Idaho Tuesday morning. In addition, smoke from
fires in eastern Washington is moving into the region. As a
result, smoky and hazy conditions are expected on Tuesday. The
forecast has been updated to reflect increased smoke and haze
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Localized smoke creating hazy skies near SE OR
terminals due to wildfires. High density altitude during afternoon
hours due to hot temperatures. Isolated virga showers and
thunderstorms near the Nevada border through 15/06Z with outflow
gusts to 40 kt.

Surface winds: NW 8-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt, except gusts to 30 kt
in the Snake River Valley until 15/12Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-
NW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. High density altitude during afternoon hours due to hot
temperatures. Smoke aloft from area wildfires. Surface winds: NW 5-
8 kt becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt after 15/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Satellite
imagery (as of writing this) shows cumulus development along
and north of the Nevada border, with some isolated showers mixed
in. As heights aloft fall ahead of an incoming trough, weak
instability will be able to build in allowing for some Isolated
thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon. Inverted-V
soundings indicate that localized wind gusts will be the primary
hazard along with lightning. Winds could gust as high as 50 MPH
in proximity to storms. Outside of thunder, synoptic winds will
continue to increase as an upper level trough digs down from
British Columbia. The strongest northwest winds will be east of
a line roughly from Jordan Valley to Prairie, with gusts of
20-25 MPH. Localized gusts up to 30 mph are possible east of
Mountain home. These winds combined with low RHs have led to a
Red Flag Warning this afternoon/evening for our southeast zones.
Temperatures are expected to climb to around 100 degrees
throughout the lower elevations and to the mid-upper 80s in
mountain valleys this afternoon. The Heat Advisory will remain
untouched, expiring at 9pm MDT Tonight.

A cold front crossing our area Tuesday morning, ahead of the
upper level trough, will offer some relief dropping temperatures
down to near normal. Northwest winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon behind this front, with the strongest gusts (30-35MPH)
being between Murphy and Twin Falls. Elsewhere will see gusts
of around 20-25 MPH. Precipitation and thunder chances increase
in southern Twin Falls and northeast Valley counties as the
upper level trough finally makes its way across our area.
Chances of precipitation will range from 20-30% with a 10-15%
chance of thunder. Northwest flow aloft behind this trough will
keep our area dry come Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday
will be similar to Tuesday, with a few degrees of warming in
eastern Oregon.


LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Beyond Wednesday, A
warming and drying trend will be seen across our area. This will
be thanks to an upper level ridge setting up to our south
keeping flow aloft quasi-zonal. while the hotter temperatures
will be seen south of our area, our temperatures get bumped up a
few degrees every day as it builds. Afternoon highs reach 5-10
degrees above normal on Friday. Deterministic and ensemble
model guidance indicate that a trough will move inland late this
week. This trough should act to drop temperature back down to
near normal over the weekend. Southwesterly flow aloft as a
result of this trough may provide an opportunity for moisture
to make it into our area. However, have kept chances of
precipitation <10% for now Thursday through Monday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....NF