782
FXUS65 KBOI 161558
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
958 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...West to northwest flow continues today with dry
conditions as a trough remains over southern British Columbia.
Thick wildfire smoke visible on satellite over southern and
southwest Oregon. Wildfire smoke is forecast to move westward
into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho late this afternoon,
and is expected to increase on Thursday. The upper level ridge
will expand on Thursday and Friday with temperatures near 100F
in the lowest valleys. A slight chance of thunderstorms on
Thursday afternoon and evening as monsoon moisture reaches the
NV border. No updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of smoke, mainly aloft. Thursday
morning, surface smoke make impact KBNO. Surface winds: W-NW
5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Smoke increasing tonight tomorrow
morning. Surface winds: variable less than 6 kt this morning,
becoming NW 5-10 kt this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Today will be dry
with near normal temperatures as westerly flow aloft continues
behind an exiting upper level trough. It will be locally breezy
across south-central ID with afternoon gusts 15-25 mph. On
Thursday and Friday, an upper level ridge over the southwestern
US will shift to the north. This will bring hotter temperatures,
with highs around 5 degrees above normal. This will place highs
in the Treasure Valley near 100 degrees, with a 20-50% chance
of reaching the 100 degree mark. An uptick in mid-level moisture
will accompany this pattern as the flow aloft becomes more
southwesterly. This will bring a 20% chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the higher terrain along the ID/NV border each
afternoon and evening, with lesser chances (10% or lower)
elsewhere. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will persist to our
north. The trough will enhance west to southwest flow aloft,
allowing breezy conditions with gusts 15-30 mph, highest across
the central ID mountains, to develop each afternoon as winds
aloft mix down to the surface. Regional fires, especially the
Cram Fire in north-central Oregon, will continue to send smoke
into our area at times over the next couple of days.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The pattern over the
extended will be dominated by an upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest, with ensembles in good agreement about this
pattern. Despite being on the southern fringe of the trough,
temperatures should cool to near or slightly below normal
with breezy conditions. Some model solutions bring a deeper
trough into the Northwest early next week with potential for
showers and thunderstorms and well below normal temperatures,
but confidence on this scenario is low. For now, the forecast
includes a 5-10% chance of precipitation early next week.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....ST