239
FXUS65 KBOI 031659
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
959 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions remain on track for today
with mostly clear skies. Highs today will be around 5 degrees
warmer than yesterday, which will be nearly 10 degrees above
normal. Temperatures should reach the mid 60s for much of the
Western Snake Plain. Surface winds will be breezy today through
Tuesday as southwest flow aloft increases and a system
approaches.

High clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of the incoming
system. This Pacific disturbance will move inland beginning late
tonight, bringing rain and high mountain snow across northern
areas, then into southern areas by Tuesday morning. Snow levels
will be 7500 to 9000 feet MSL tonight, then dip to 6000 to 8000
feet Tuesday morning. No change in precipitation amounts is seen
in the latest guidance, as strong southwest flow aloft will
result in higher precipitation totals in the central Idaho
mountains, with 0.20 to 0.50 inch expected and locally up to
0.75 inch possible. Lower amounts, around 0.10 inch or less, are
expected elsewhere. No updates needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Showers moving in from NW to SE this evening
through Tue. Mainly VFR for valleys, but periods of IFR/LIFR for
mtns in precip/low clouds with mountains becoming obscured. Snow
levels 6k-8k feet MSL, lowest to the NW. Potential for LLWS of 25-35
kt tonight/Tue morn. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt this afternoon.
Gusts 25-35 kt in SE Oregon and near ID/NV border. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: SW 25-40 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt. Gusts around 20 kt ending
after 18z. Light rain arriving around 04/08Z, with less than 10%
chance of MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Today will be the
last dry day before a series of systems moves through the
Pacific Northwest. Highs today will be around 5 degrees warmer
than yesterday, which will be nearly 10 degrees above normal.
Surface winds will be breezy today through Tuesday as southwest
flow aloft increases and a system approaches. High clouds will
increase this afternoon ahead of the system. The system will
bring rain and high mountain snow across northern areas
tonight, then in southern areas by Tuesday morning. Snow levels
will be 7500-9000 feet MSL tonight, then dip to 6000-8000 feet
Tuesday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will result in
higher precipitation totals in the central Idaho mountains with
0.20-0.50" expected, locally up to 0.75". Lower amounts around
0.10" or less are expected elsewhere. The system will also cool
high temperatures by 5-10 degrees.

A warm front will then lift north across the area late Tuesday,
bringing additional light precipitation and boosting snow levels
up to around 8000 feet. A break in precipitation should develop
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of a deeper
trough. This trough will push a cold front across our area on
Wednesday. This will bring stronger winds, especially across
portions of southeast Oregon and Idaho south of the Snake River
where afternoon gusts 35-50 mph are expected. Precipitation will
redevelop Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Strong
west-southwest flow will bring moderate precipitation totals to
the mountains with light amounts expected elsewhere. There is
also a less than 15% chance of thunderstorms along and behind
the front, although cloud cover and cool surface temperatures
will limit potential. Snow levels will lower behind the front to
6000-7000 by late Wednesday night, with several inches of snow
expected on higher peaks.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Colder air will move
overhead Thursday morning as the trough passes to the east.
Upper flow will gradually transition to northwesterly, with
lingering precipitation expected over the higher terrain of
northeast OR/west-central ID while other areas trend drier. The
next Pacific trough will be quick to arrive by late Thursday,
spreading a potent moisture plume into the region with a
vertically stacked west- northwest flow. Winds will increase
Thursday night and especially Friday as the trough moves
overhead. Precipitation amounts may be considerable for favored
upslope areas such as the west-central ID/Boise mountains, with
approximately 70% chance of receiving at 0.50" or greater liquid
equivalent in those areas. Meanwhile, some valley shadowing
will be likely in this pattern due to moderately strong mid-
level winds. The bulk of the colder air will remain north of the
area with this storm, and therefore temperatures are expected
to be within a few degrees of normal for both Thursday and
Friday. Snow levels will oscillate between 6000-7500 feet MSL
ahead of/during the trough passage. Light snow amounts are
forecast above 6000 feet, with several inches forecast above
7000 feet. Precipitation should taper off Saturday morning as
the trough exits and northwest flow develops ahead of a
strengthening ridge. Drier and mild conditions are then expected
for the rest of the weekend into early Monday as the ridge
builds and moisture stays to the west and north. Temperatures
will rise a few degrees above normal on Sunday/Monday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....SH