549
FXUS65 KBOI 162010
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
210 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A shortwave
trough is bringing isolated precipitation this evening and a
weak cold frontal passage tonight. A 20% chance of precipitation
exists across SE/E Oregon and west-central Idaho. In the same
area, a 10% chance of thunder exists. Thunderstorms will be on
the weaker side, producing outflow gusts of 30-35 mph, though
the environment could allow one or two instances of outflows up
to 40mph in the vicinity of storms. Precipitation dissipates
around sunset as the front moves through. This will allow wind
gusts of up to 25 mph in the afternoon to persist into early
Monday night. While the cold front will drop temperatures on
Tuesday, it will only be by a few degrees and we stay around 5
degrees above normal. The trough exits eastward tonight and
zonal flow sets in as high pressure builds in the southwestern
CONUS. The high pressure keeps us in a quieter weather pattern
through the short term.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Thursday continues the
quiet weather as southwest flow remains in place, but a
significant Alaskan low begins to move in on Friday. The very
low heights inside the low indicate a very cool airmass for
this time of year, and as the colder air moves in aloft and
moisture moves into the area convection could occur as early as
Thursday evening. The cold front associated with the low is
expected to move through on Friday, bringing gusty winds during
the frontal passage. 30-35 mph gusts are expected across much of
the area during the frontal passage, while the strongest models
show localized gusts as high as 45 mph. As the low moves
overhead precipitation chances increase to 40-70% on Saturday
across northern portions of our forecast area. This coincides
with another round of convection on Saturday, though limited by
the now much colder surface temperatures. Afternoon high
temperatures on Saturday are about 15 degrees below normal,
close to 70 degrees in the Snake Plain. While cold, this is
still 10 degrees above the daily records for coldest high
temperatures for most locations. This is cold enough for snow
levels to drop to about 6kft MSL, low enough for higher mountain
ridges to see a couple inches of snow. Showers continue into
Sunday as wind speeds decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly across the north (including near KBKE/KMYL) ending by
Tue/06Z. Gusty winds to 35 kt with the storms. A cold front moves
through SE OR late this aft and SW ID this eve. Surface winds: W-NW
5-15 kt - higher gusts near KTWF/KJER. Winds briefly gusting to 25
kt behind the cold front. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt
shifting to the northwest this evening.

KBOI...VFR. Slight chance (less than 20 percent) of a shower or
thunderstorm after Tue/00Z. Surface winds NW 5-12 kt. A cold front
will briefly increase NW winds to 10-20 kt with gusts 25 kt from
Tue/01z-04z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....BW