122
FXUS65 KBOI 170246
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
846 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms
developed this afternoon near a cold front through Salmon/ID -
Ontario/OR - Burns/OR. The front was moving ESE ahead of a
Pacific upper trough moving onto the coast. In addition to the
showers, the frontal passage was marked by an increase in
northwest winds, up to 20-30 mph over open terrain. All this
will end tonight, and Tuesday will be sunny and slightly cooler
as the upper trough moves through. Then sunny and warmer
Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a strong cold front Friday.
The front will bring much cooler air, gusty winds, showers, a
chance of thunderstorms, and light snow on mountains as low as
6000 feet MSL. Current forecast is on track.  No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
ending by Tue/06Z. Wind gusts to 35 kt with the storms. A cold
front continues to move east through SW ID this evening,
located between KMUO and KTWF/KJER as of 8:20 PM MDT. Surface
winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with higher gusts (20-30 kt) behind the
front from KBOI eastward. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Chance of a shower (30%) or thunderstorm (10%)
through Tue/04Z. Surface winds NW around 10 kt. A cold front
will briefly increase NW winds to 10-20 kt with gusts 25 kt
from Tue/01z-04z. Winds will become variable around 5 kt after
Tue/05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A shortwave
trough will bring isolated precipitation this evening and a
weak cold frontal passage tonight. A 20% chance of precipitation
exists across SE/E Oregon and west-central Idaho. In the same
area, a 10% chance of thunder exists. Thunderstorms will be on
the weaker side, producing outflow gusts of 30-35 mph, though
the environment could allow one or two instances of outflows up
to 40 mph in the vicinity of storms. Precipitation dissipates
around sunset as the front moves through. This will allow wind
gusts of up to 25 mph to persist into early tonight. While the
cold front will drop temperatures on Tuesday, it will only be
by a few degrees and we stay around 5 degrees above normal. The
trough will exit eastward Tuesday night, and zonal flow will
set in as high pressure builds in the southwestern CONUS. The
high pressure will keep us in a quieter weather pattern through
the short term.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Thursday continues the
quiet weather as southwest flow remains in place, but a
significant Alaskan low begins to move in on Friday. The very
low heights inside the low indicate a very cool airmass for
this time of year, and as the colder air moves in aloft and
moisture moves into the area convection could occur as early
as Thursday evening. The cold front associated with the low is
expected to move through on Friday, bringing gusty winds during
the frontal passage. 30-35 mph gusts are expected across much of
the area during the frontal passage, while the strongest models
show localized gusts as high as 45 mph. As the low moves
overhead precipitation chances increase to 40-70% on Saturday
across northern portions of our forecast area. This coincides
with another round of convection on Saturday, though limited
by the now much colder surface temperatures. Afternoon high
temperatures on Saturday are about 15 degrees below normal,
close to 70 degrees in the Snake Plain. While cold, this is
still 10 degrees above the daily records for coldest high
temperatures for most locations. This is cold enough for snow
levels to drop to about 6kft MSL, low enough for higher mountain
ridges to see a couple inches of snow. Showers continue into
Sunday as wind speeds decrease.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM