205
FXUS65 KBOI 141537
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
937 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...Today is still on track to be the hottest day of
the week, with temperatures expected to make it up to 104 in the
Lower Treasure Valley and around 100 degrees elsewhere in the
Snake Plain. Smoke from fires in Oregon/California can be seen
on Satellite this morning across southeastern Oregon, resulting
in hazy skies. This smoke is expected to spread into SW Idaho
through the day. Northwest winds will begin gusting this
afternoon ahead of an incoming trough, with the strongest gusts
(20-25 MPH with isolated pockets of 30 MPH) near the western
Magic Valley. These winds in combination with low RHs has led to
a Red Flag Warning for our southeastern zones this
afternoon/evening. As mentioned in the prior discussion,
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
along the Nevada border. Little rain is expected, with primary
hazards being lightning and localized wind gusts of 45-50MPH.
The current forecast covers everything well, no updates
necessary.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Localized smoke near wildfires. High density
altitude during afternoon hours due to hot temperatures.
Isolated thunderstorms near the Nevada border this afternoon/early
evening with outflow gusts to 40 kt. Surface winds: light until
noon, becoming NW 5-15 kt with gusts 15-25 kt this afternoon, except
gusts to 30 kt in the central Snake Basin. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-NW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. High density altitude during afternoon hours due to hot
temperatures. Surface winds: light and variable until noon, then NW
7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Today is the
hottest day of this brief heat surge. Lower elevations will run
100-105 with mtn valleys in the mid-upper 80s. Mid-upper level
moisture will increase along the northern NV border today
supporting a slight chance of high-based development across
southern Harney and Malheur counties and higher terrain along
the ID/NV border. Locally gusty outflow winds to 45 mph are
possible near showers and thunderstorms that develop, but little
if any rainfall is expected. Daytime mixing will bring down an
increasing W-NW flow aloft, making for breezy conditions this
afternoon across open and elevated terrain. Gusts will range
between 15 and 25 mph with pockets of 30 mph gusts across the
western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie.

For Tuesday, an upper trough dropping out of Canada will push a
cold front through the region. The NAM Nest is hinting at high-
based showers developing across s-central Idaho early in the
morning with other high res models jumping on board in the
afternoon. For now see a 10-15% chance overnight/early Tuesday
increasing to 15-25% after mid-morning as the trough axis
passes. Similar to today, gusty outflow winds and little rain
will accompany showers/storms. Breezy northwest winds follow
the cold front on Tuesday, with a greater area of 20-30 mph
gusts through the afternoon. Most areas see a 6-12 degrees
temperature drop from today to Tuesday, returning highs to
around normal. Wednesday is dry with NW flow continuing behind
the exiting trough, though winds will be noticeably lighter.
Oregon will start to see some warming while highs in SW Idaho
are unchanged if not a few degrees cooler than Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Hot, dry, and at times
breezy conditions will prevail through much of the extended. An
upper level ridge centered to our south will nudge into our
area and bring hotter temperatures (around 5 degrees above
normal) Thursday through Saturday. A weak upper level trough
will develop along the coast late this week resulting in west to
southwest flow aloft. This pattern may bring elevated moisture
to our area with a threat of showers and thunderstorms. However,
storm chances generally remain low (less than 10%) at this
time. Afternoon winds will be breezy under this pattern. By
Sunday and Monday, ensembles indicate the trough will deepen and
move inland to our north. This should cool temperatures by
several degrees with continued dry and breezy conditions.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ012.
     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening IDZ424-426.
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ064.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION.....LC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST