466
FXUS65 KBOI 052030
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
230 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Breezy northwesterly
winds are kicking up across the Snake River Valley this
afternoon, with cool temperatures and a few cumulus clouds
building over higher terrain. Isolated showers with a stray
lightning strike will continue over the Southern Boise
Mountains, dissipating after 6pm MDT. Clouds will begin to
clear overnight, with temperatures reaching near or below
freezing in higher elevation valleys. Therefore, a frost
advisory has been issued for the Western Magic Valley with
overnight lows anticipated to be around 30-37F. Winds will die
down quite a bit overnight, with patchy fog likely in sheltered
valleys. Fog will mix out by mid morning, with another day of
cool and dry conditions anticipated. A Pacific high will then
build in on Tuesday, with temperatures increasing across the
region.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Dry southwesterly flow
will bring warming and drying conditions through Thursday.
Temperatures will climb to about 3-5 degrees above normal
through the midweek, then a return to a cool and wet pattern
will occur. Model agreement has increased with ensembles
agreeing on the track of a deep upper level low moving into the
Pacific Northwest on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty
winds, and high terrain showers to the area.

There is still large discontinuity on the timing of the
heaviest precipitation, with the GFS/Canadian deterministic
models showing a much slower evolution compared to the ECMWF. By
Sunday, the trough axis will move east, bringing cold
temperatures and lingering showers over higher terrain. This
will be a much colder air mass than earlier this weekend, so
there is a potential for light snow down into population centers
in mountain areas like McCall and Idaho City on Sunday.

&&


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR today. Isolated afternoon showers will
occur near KJER/KGNG, with a stray thunderstorm possible over
nearby high terrain. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL. Mtns obscured
in low ceilings and precip. Patchy valley fog and scattered low
stratus clouds overnight, primarily in sheltered mountain
valleys. Surface winds: NW-N 5-15 kt, with gusts near 25 kt
through the Snake Plain becoming variable less than 10 kt after
Sun/05Z. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: N-NE 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 8-12 kts with gusts 15-20 kts,
shifting to SE 5-10 kt after Sun/05Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM MDT Monday IDZ016.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA