454
FXUS65 KBOI 220930
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
330 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Hot temperatures are
expected through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure
remains in place, driven by an approaching Pacific system set to
reach the British Columbia coast tonight. This setup will bring
the warmest temperatures of the year so far. The Treasure
Valley has a 70-80% chance of hitting 100 degrees or more today.
On Sunday, the chances slightly decrease to 40-70% as the ridge
axis and the warmest air shift further east. These temperatures
are 15-20 degrees above normal, though still a few degrees shy
of record highs. Clear skies and dry air will allow overnight
lows to drop into the low to mid-60s each night, helping to
mitigate heat concerns.

As the ridge axis moves east, southwest flow aloft will
develop, bringing breezy conditions to the higher elevations
starting Saturday and intensifying on Sunday, with wind gusts
reaching 25-35 mph. In the lower elevations, winds will be
lighter.

A Pacific system with an associated surface cold front will pass
through on Monday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures, with
valley highs around the mid-90s. However, the air mass will
remain too dry for any precipitation with the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A much stronger Gulf of
Alaska trough is expected to move inland late next week,
potentially as early as Thursday. The majority of ensemble
guidance (around 83% of the members) favors an early cold
frontal passage on Thursday, while the remaining 17% favor a
passage on Friday. Ahead of the trough, an upper-level ridge
will re-amplify on Tuesday and Wednesday with its axis just to
our east. This will lead to temperatures rising back into the
mid to upper 90s, with a 30-50% chance of reaching 100 degrees
in the Treasure Valley on Wednesday.

The frontal passage, currently favored for Thursday, will bring
a significant temperature drop of about 20-25 degrees,
potentially resulting in below-normal temperatures on Friday.
While the air mass will remain largely dry, there could be
enough moisture across the West Central Mountains of Idaho for
showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Winds will stay breezy as
the trough moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Hot temperatures will
bring high density altitudes. Surface winds: variable 10kt or
less. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Hot temperatures will
bring high density altitudes. Surface winds: SE 5-10kt.

Sunday Outlook...VFR. Hot temperatures will bring high
density altitudes. Surface winds W-SW 10-20kt during the
afternoons, light during the night.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS