Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
440 FXUS65 KBOI 110240 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 840 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continue across the area as a cold front moves through. Most thunderstorms are about to leave east of the area, showers continue behind the front with temperatures and dewpoints dropping. Gusty winds will persist overnight and tomorrow behind the front. Saturday will be significantly colder, around 20 degrees colder than today, with a slight chance of showers all day. Saturday night precipitation chances rise and snow levels fall to 5500-6500 ft MSL, bringing snow to ridges and high elevation passes with a couple inches of snow forecast in mountains. The forecast this evening overall hasn`t changed much from the afternoon forecast, so no updates were made to the grids. && .AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue into Saturday. Mtn obscuration in precip. Snow levels 7500-8500ft MSL, lowering to 5500-6500ft Sat. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15kt, gusts to 15-30kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 20-35 kt. KBOI...VFR. Showers exiting vicinity between 04Z-06Z/Sat, returning late Saturday morning. Surface winds: variable 5-10 kt overnight, especially around showers. Then, W to NW 5-12 kt Sat morning, with gusts increasing to 15-25 kt by 11/16Z. Sunday Outlook...Mountains becoming obscured. Rain/snow continues into Sunday with snow levels 5k-6kft MSL. Periods of low VFR/MVFR in rain, IFR/LIFR in snow. Surface winds: generally SW-W 5-15 kt, gusts to 20-25 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A chance of showers and thunderstorms will carry over into tonight as a cold front advances across SE Oregon and SW Idaho. Gusty outflow winds will remain a threat through sunset at lower elevations with higher gusts still possible above mtn valley floors through the cold frontal passage. The front and accompanying showers/storms will bring a shift to W-NW winds but the magnitude will be diminished. Forecast timing of the front has it through SE Oregon by early evening, then slowing down as it reaches the Western Magic Valley around midnight. Saturday sees a continuation of showers across the region as the closed low opens into a trough and tracks eastward. High temperatures will run 15-25 degrees cooler than today, the greatest cooling across SW Idaho zones. A minimal thunderstorm threat (10-15% chance) remains across the w-central Idaho mtns where marginal afternoon instability exists. Winds will be lighter and mostly gradient driven as flow aloft weakens with the approach of the trough axis. Snow levels won`t begin to fall in earnest until Sat/Sat night as the core of the cold air moves overhead. By Saturday night snow levels across SE Oregon and SW Idaho will range between 5-6kft MSL. This period will bring the best chance for accumulating snow as a trailing upper low dropping out of BC, Canada will keep a 60-80% chance of precipitation over e-central Oregon and the w-central Idaho mtns Saturday night. The majority of accumulating snow will stay above 6-6.5kft MSL where 1-3 inches is possible across Baker County, Steens Mtn, the Owyhees and w-central Idaho mtns through midday Sunday. High temperatures drop further on Sunday, bottoming out around 10 degrees below normal (mid-upper 50s valleys, low 40s mtns). LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Unsettled conditions will continue throughout the week as an area of low pressure first cuts- off to our southwest, then works its way to the east across the Great Basin. There is very strong agreement amongst the ensemble members on the location, depth, and initial movement of the low through Wednesday. Beyond that time frame there is some uncertainty on how quickly the low opens up and moves to the east of the region. Regardless of how quickly the low opens up, the forecast calls for enough moisture and instability to generate showers across the area beginning Tuesday and lingering through the week. Snow levels are expected to remain above 7000 feet, with a 10-15% chance of greater than an inch of snow each day for the higher peaks. Overall precipitation amounts for lower elevations are expected to be on the lower side, with the weekly total ranging from 0.05 inches to 0.25 inches. Temperatures will hover at or just below average. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....MC