118
FXUS65 KBOU 032345
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
445 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation will form across the mountains and foothills to
  the south of I-70 Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
  Snow amounts will be between 2-7" with the highest values and
  worst road conditions in western Park County.

- Pleasant temperatures and dry conditions are expected Thursday
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry, zonal flow over Colorado
between a departing trough over the Midwest and another trough over
California. As a result, conditions will be dry today with breezy
conditions across the plains.

The aforementioned California trough will move over Colorado
Wednesday afternoon. This is a weak, compact system that will
provide generally weak lift over a small portion of our forecast
area. The main area that will likely (up to 80% chance) see
precipitation with this system is the I-70 corridor mountains,
southern foothills, and Palmer Divide. Despite the forcing being
weak, there will be decent instability in the higher terrain
especially in Park County considering the morning sunshine will
create steep low level lapse rates. Showers and potentially a
couple of thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon in this
area. By the evening, the showers will turn into more stratiform
precipitation and will spread out slightly. Model guidance is
starting to spread out a bit for this system as a few higher end
solutions have recently come in. Those seemingly indicate the
potential this system could have to produce impactful snow
especially along Highway 285 in Park County and some areas in the
far southwestern foothills. The forecast currently calls for
roughly 2-7" of snow mainly in Park County and adjacent areas
above 7,500 feet. If there is an increasing trend in the
precipitation amounts for this system, a Winter Weather Advisory
may be needed due to poor travel conditions Wednesday night.
However, there is uncertainty with the exact track of this system
and if it were to go farther south, rain and snow amounts could be
much lower. If the system tracks farther north, precipitation
could expand further northward in the mountains but the
precipitation across the plains will still be very limited.

On Thursday, a ridge aloft will move over Colorado which will dry
conditions out. It will stay relatively cool with highs in the 50s
across the plains.

A very weak shortwave trough will move just to the north of
Colorado late Friday into Saturday. There is very limited moisture
with this system and only a slight chance (20%) that any
precipitation occurs in the mountains.

A broad ridge aloft will expand over the Intermountain West Sunday
through early next week. This will lead to an extended period of
dry, mild, and pleasant conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 425 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Light and
variable winds will continue for the next couple of hours before
winds turn more towards drainage overnight. Winds will become
light and variable again for the late morning, with winds from the
east/northeast for the afternoon. Winds speeds will increase
closer to 10kts to 12kts for the mid to late afternoon. The next
system will move through in the late afternoon and evening
tomorrow (mainly after 00Z). Right now, the bulk of the
precipitation is forecast to miss the TAF sites to the southwest.
However, lower CIGs (around 3500ft to 7000ft) could move into the
area, with the highest chance for lower CIGs and rain at APA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...AP