460
FXUS65 KBOU 072108
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
208 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Tuesday: Windy, with near-seasonal temperatures.
  Mostly dry, save for some light mountain snow showers at times.

- Light mountain snow may make a return Wednesday-Thursday, with
  another round of strong winds expected for the mountains,
  foothills, and potentially lower elevations as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 121 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

A few high clouds are filtering in to our high country this
afternoon following a largely sunny day, and cloud cover will
steadily increase into Monday as a subtle shortwave approaches.
This will lead to deepening moisture in our mountains which will
peak Monday morning, generating light to occasionally moderate
snow showers primarily for the higher peaks where orographics
will be the most favorable. Snow accumulations will be light.

Meanwhile, winds remain robust today across the higher terrain,
and the situation will stay relatively unchanged over the coming
days as we continue to reside between high and low pressure
systems, with healthy flow aloft through the period.

Cross-sections indicate considerable strengthening of cross-
barrier flow Monday night into early Tuesday morning, rising to
around 70 kts near mountaintops by ~12Z Tuesday as east-west
pressure gradients peak. Wind-prone locations on the leeward side
of the Continental Divide should easily surpass high wind
thresholds given current guidance, so have hoisted a High Wind
Watch for our higher Front Range mountains and northern foothills
where confidence in impacts is highest. Ensembles appear a little
less excited about the prospect of high winds spreading into
adjacent lower elevations, perhaps given the suboptimal wind
directions aloft, so these areas are left out of any headlines for
now. Robust compressional warming will push temperatures into the
upper 50`s for the urban corridor and plains Tuesday, and keep
most areas dry, although the mountains will hold on to a chance of
light snow showers later in the day, primarily north of I-70.

Although windy conditions are progged to be quite consistent
throughout the week, there does appear to be a slight lull early
Wednesday as pressure gradients slacken. The wind won`t entirely
disappear from the mountains, but the reduction looks sufficient
enough to support a break in high wind headlines before our
probable next bout of strong winds. Wednesday also carries the
greatest potential for a few inches of snow accumulation in our
northern mountains. Having said that, we`ve seen a significant
trend towards a much weaker shortwave over the northern plains,
which has drastically reduced the upper end mountain snowfall
potential for the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, and also greatly
reduced the probability of precipitation for our lower elevations
(less than 20% chance of light amounts). If that trend is here to
stay, it could also end up eating away at some of our high wind
potential for the same timeframe, but so far there`s enough
consistency in the proximity of the jet to support another wave of
strong winds in our forecast beginning Wednesday night. Cross-
sections and forecast soundings suggest slightly higher potential
for downstream mountain wave amplification with this second wave,
but there`s ample time to resolve those spatial details still.
Either way, both days should be on the milder side under
widespread subsident flow.

Moving into the Friday-Sunday period, the pattern suggests
prevailing dry conditions for the entire region, mountains
included. The temperature front is much less certain, however.
Models are at odds with each other regarding the progression of
an arctic airmass into the eastern half of the country, resulting
in a huge spread in forecast temperatures. The plains are often
more susceptible to catching the western edge of such airmasses
and ending up on the colder side of long-range guidance, but model
blend solutions are more than appropriate for now to capture
either scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1029 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR to prevail through tonight and Monday. West to northwest
winds will slowly turn northerly through the afternoon hours, 22Z.
We could see a few gusts to around 20 knots. Winds then weaken
22-23Z and transition to the southeast by 00Z. Southerly winds
then prevail through tonight and into Monday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
for COZ033>035.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...12