639
FXUS65 KBOU 010634
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1234 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues through Thursday morning over our eastern and
  southeastern counties, higher amounts are expected in Lincoln
  county.

- Isolated showers are possible Tuesday in the higher terrain due
  to a weak disturbance aloft.

- Warmer and drier for this weekend and mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current analysis shows the closed low centered near the New Mexico
and southeastern Colorado border with ample moisture indicated by
water vapor imagery. Light showers continue over Lincoln, moderate
to light over Washington, and light over far south/southeastern
Elbert county where dual pol storm total accumulations between the
communities of Punkin Center and Kutch shows potentially near 4" has
fallen. Short term model guidance indicates showers should continue
in our far east/southeastern counties until Thursday morning, and an
additional 0.25-0.50" could fall, especially in Lincoln county. Some
CAMs depict showers moving into the Denver metro as the night
continues, but based on the CAMs recent performance we don`t trust
these solutions very much. Nonetheless, we included a 15% chance for
a light shower to meager towards Denver through tonight. As the
system pushes off to our southeast, cloud cover will clear across
the area as the day continues Thursday providing some true sunshine
for the first time in a few days. High temperatures Thursday will
warm into the lower 70s in the plains and the urban corridor. The
mountains will see 50s and 60s.

After a rather interesting and complicated forecast early this week,
the weather pattern for us turns much more straightforward for
this period. This weekend a ridge builds over the state favoring
dry and above normal temperatures. Friday and Sunday will see
similar temperatures with upper 70s/lower 80s across the I-25
corridor, Denver metro, and eastern plains. Saturday will be a few
degrees warmer area wide in the low/mid 80s with some locations
in the eastern plains reaching the upper 80s. Additionally, a weak
cold front appears to makes its way through the northeastern
plains Saturday afternoon causing breezy conditions with gusts in
the 20-30 kts range. This front will take down temperatures making
for a cooler Sunday for the far northeastern corner.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday the patterns gets a touch more
interesting. Deterministic models shows a short wave moving across
our area, and forecast soundings depict some moisture moving in
aloft. Tuesday should be the greatest chance in the higher terrain
as the shortwave moves overhead and the moisture fills in. Tuesday
we currently have 20-30% across the high country. At this time
ensemble and deterministic guidance only shows a few members
providing rain for the I-25 and urban corridor. Forecast soundings
also indicate PWATs in the 0.6-0.7 range, but little low-level
moisture for the plains, so any confidence in measurable rain is
low at this time. Wednesday and Thursday the dry stagnant patterns
looks to return as the ridge develops overhead inducing upper 70s
and lower 80s for the plains with 50s and 60s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1148 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers persist just east of the TAF sites late tonight, with
fairly calm conditions observed at all three Denver TAF sites.
Winds are currently in the process of turning to drainage at
KDEN/KAPA, with current south-southeasterly winds expected to
transition to the southwest in the next hour or so, before
becoming more westerly for the rest of tonight. KBJC is currently
more NW where they are expected to remain before a weak cold
front is still expected to turn winds to the north between 12Z to
14Z at all TAF sites. Winds are expected to turn clockwise through
the morning, becoming northeasterly by the latter half of the
morning. The more northerly winds are likely to pull some of the
elevated moisture from the plains into the TAF sites. Guidance
continues to depict potential for a scattered to broken deck of
stratocumulus clouds to remain in place through the afternoon. The
latest hi-res models keep broken decks above 6,000 feet AGL, but
a few still show potential for a brief period of ceilings dropping
down to around 3,000 to 4,000 feet AGL. There is higher
confidence in the drier solutions depicted in the latest TAF, but
there is still a 10-15% chance we see a brief period of the lower
CIG in the late morning when the northeasterly winds set in. Winds
should turn to the south in the early evening before becoming
southerly for the overnight hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell
AVIATION...9