704
FXUS65 KBOU 071132
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
532 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool Tuesday with some gradually clearing skies.

- Above normal temperatures return for Wednesday and continue
  through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Low level flow will continue to keep the low clouds and moisture
banked up against the foothills and east slopes of the Front Range
mountains through tonight. A jet streak will bring scattered
showers to the area through this evening with a little snow over
the higher mountains. Precipitation comes to an end this evening,
but enough low level moisture will remain in place for low clouds
to persist. This will help keep temperatures from fall much
overnight with lower to mid 40s expected for overnight lows.

Ridging begins to develop Tuesday over the Southern Rockies, but
doesn`t affect Colorado yet. Surface high pressure off to the east
will result in a southeasterly low level flow. This is expected
to produce a Denver cyclone, which will help keep the cooler and
more moist air east of the Continental Divide. Expect mostly
cloudy skies to begin the day, with some clearing during the
afternoon hours. High temperatures will be below normal again with
readings in the upper 50s to lower 60 across northeast Colorado.
If/where clouds persist through the day, highs will likely be in
the 50s. Low level flow turns more southwesterly Tuesday evening
and Tuesday night. This will scour out the cooler and more moist
airmass.

Upper level over the Southern Rockies spreads northward Wednesday
bringing warmer and drier conditions. This ridging stays over
Colorado through Thursday. Temperatures climb above normal with
highs expected to reach the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

The ridging slide east of Colorado Friday as an upper level low
moves onto the west coast. The southwest flow aloft will continue
to bring mild temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
across northeast Colorado. Southwest flow aloft increases into
Saturday as the upper level low moves inland. Moisture increases
as well with widespread rain showers and high mountain snow (above
12,000 MSL) moves into the western half of Colorado Saturday and
Saturday night. The rain and snow showers are expected for the
north central mountains as well, but will be lighter and more
scattered. The main low travels eastward across Montana and
northern Wyoming, staying well north of Colorado. This will result
in westerly flow aloft and downslope flow east of the Continental
Divide, greatly limiting chances for precipitation. Temperatures
cool off for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Will
have low PoPs in the forecast for Sunday. Flow aloft backs to the
southwest flow Monday as the next storm system drops south across
the western States. There`s some normal uncertainties in the
pattern with next Monday being a week away, but would expect
temperatures to be near normal with dry conditions under this
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Generally MVFR conditions this morning will slowly give way to VFR
during the day. Ceilings are once again a bit varied across the
Denver metro, but soundings suggest the most persistent moisture
is located at roughly 775-700mb (~2000-3000ft AGL). Guidance has
backed away from the previously foggy solutions and instead
maintain that BKN020-030 deck through most of the morning hours.
There should be a gradual scattering out of the stratus along with
a slight rise in ceilings this afternoon, but I`m not confident
that VFR returns until somewhere around 00z this evening. Lowest
confidence in timing is at APA where there`s been an attempt to
erode/advect the stratus out of the area, but with winds gradually
turning north this morning I suspect that won`t last long.

By this evening, drainage flow should develop and any remaining
stratus should dissipate... and that will continue into Wednesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Hiris