314
FXUS65 KBOU 300001
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
601 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for most areas this
  afternoon, strongest north of I-70 with a marginal risk of a
  severe storm or two in the northern plains.

- Storm chances shift northeast on Saturday, with a few strong
  storms again possible over far northeastern Colorado.

- Drier weather will prevail for all areas on Sunday, with a
  return to daily shower/thunderstorm potential each afternoon
  starting Monday under continued warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

This morning`s cloud cover has proved inconsequential with regard to
today`s convective potential, with the bulk of the low stratus
having dissipated (even in the eastern plains) and Denver ACARS
soundings indicating we`re already eroding the capping inversion at
~750mb. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in
the mountains and also to the south of the Palmer Divide where
clearing was most accelerated, and will spread into the northeast
quadrant of the state through the remainder of the afternoon. On the
moisture front, there`s a sharp north-south gradient in dewpoints
across the Denver metro coincident with the convergent boundary,
with areas north of I-70 maintaining elevated values supportive of
initiation and intensification of storms this afternoon. Thus, the
(marginal) threat for any severe storms is reasonably confined to
our northern plains and urban corridor, although limited shear may
buffer the duration of individual cells and taper the hail threat in
particular, instead favoring outflow winds with localized gusts 40
to 50 mph.

Drier air will become a driving factor in the reduction of shower
and thunderstorm coverage for the urban corridor Saturday under a
downslope flow regime, as the surface low migrates east and weakens.
Although some guidance including the RRFS/HRRR is perhaps too
aggressive with the magnitude of the drying, even a more modest
reduction in low-level moisture in the form of dewpoints into the
lower 30`s would indicate limited thunderstorm potential for areas
roughly west and south of the I-25 and I-70 corridors (excluding the
mountains). Meanwhile, the northeast plains will hold onto
moderately unstable conditions (500-1,000 J/Kg ML CAPE) and support
better coverage in the late afternoon, although the threat of severe
thunderstorms still appears best farther east where surface heating
will be maximized.

As the upper-level low lifts north Sunday, rising heights and
increasingly zonal flow will follow in its wake, leading to a return
to warm and dry conditions regionwide. An isolated and light terrain-
induced shower can`t be ruled out for our northern mountains in the
afternoon, but that would certainly be the exception to the norm.

The synoptic pattern is far from elucidating for next week, favoring
a generally light zonal to SW flow aloft (especially during the
latter half of the week) and leaving some room for the passage of a
weak shortwave or two Monday/Tuesday. With enough lingering moisture
in place and some gradual warming through the week, enough
ingredients should be in play to allow for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms most of the days, although
there`s little indication of any particularly impressive moisture
amounts at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 546 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have largely moved away from the TAF
sites early this evening, moving to the north and east parts of
the forecast area. Will keep VCSH for the next few hours as we
can`t completely rule out any passing boundaries or the expected
northeasterly wind shift (by ~2Z) kicking up another shower or two
in the previously worked-over locations.

There are some uncertainties with wind directions for the
overnight hours tonight, with a little more confidence in a brief
N to NE wind shift for KDEN/KAPA (light and VRB for KBJC) before
returning to the NW somewhere between 4-6Z followed by light SW
winds by early morning. The other option would have winds turning
to the SE towards drainage through the evening.

Main concerns for Saturday will be with some gusty outflows
stemming from passing high-based showers after 20-21Z across all
TAF sites. Could see variable gusty winds between 25-35kts as they
pass.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...9