964
FXUS65 KBOU 150543
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1043 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will hold through
  most of the weekend.

- The next system will bring a chance of precipitation to much of
  the forecast area Sunday night into Monday, with a few inches
  of snow and generally minor travel impacts for the high country.

- Cooler and unsettled weather at times next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 125 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

The last of the really mild fall days will likely occur this
weekend, before we settle into a cooler and more active weather
pattern for the latter half of this month. Whether and when that
leads to our first measurable snow in Denver is still up in the
air (pun intended).

For this weekend, the upper level ridge will dominate our weather
through late Sunday, keeping dry and relatively warm weather in
place. A weak backdoor cold front does push across the plains
Saturday morning, offering several degrees of cooling but highs
will still be 12-15 degrees above normal. Similar temperatures can
be expected Sunday. Some uncertainty exists in the temperatures
especially in valley areas depending on amount of high clouds, but
even there we`ll be starting with relatively shallow inversions so
worst case they`re a few degrees below current deterministic
forecasts.

The next chance of precipitation in the forecast arrives late
Sunday, and mostly Sunday night/early Monday as an upper level
low ejects and weakens as it lifts northeast across the Central
Rockies. Ensembles remain in relatively good agreement with this
feature, but precipitation chances will depend on exactly how far
south the best lift occurs. Right now, it still appears we`ll be
on the southern edge of the best combination of lift and moisture,
enough to bring a few inches of snow to the mountains and some
minor travel impacts over/near the passes. The plains will likely
see scattered and mainly light rain showers, with the highest
probability staying north of I-70. Temperatures will turn cooler
with the passage of the trough, but latest runs showed a little
less cooling so both Monday`s and Tuesday`s readings will likely
end up a few degrees above normal.

More uncertainty enters the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday
when the next trough is forecast to arrive. There does seem to be
a trend for a weaker or faster trough that would bring scattered
light precipitation. Only a few of the runs were holding onto
anything more significant or bringing the first measurable
snowfall to Denver area (only ~20% chance). As long as that
system stays progressive (considerable uncertainty here), Friday
would trend toward dry but still cool weather. No matter how this
evolves, cooler and somewhat unsettled weather lies ahead which
could quite possibly last through Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1039 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Wind
direction is somewhat uncertain over the next couple of hours...
as a subtle surface boundary has evidently been enough to shift
winds to the northeast at DEN. While no guidance I could find had
this feature, there are hints from the HRRR that there could be a
couple of additional wind shifts overnight... though speeds should
generally remain less than 10-12kt. Meanwhile, BJC has been
consistently in a channel of enhanced westerlies. Again guidance
here has been struggling and how long those persist overnight is
uncertain, especially because the other typically windy spots to
the west are already fairly calm.

Winds on Saturday should eventually turn from the typical drainage
flow to a light east or southeast component. SCT-BKN high cloud
cover is likely to continue through Saturday evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Hiris