737
FXUS65 KBOU 080130
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
730 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool today with clearing skies by early evening.

- Above normal temperatures return for Wednesday and continue
  through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

This morning`s stratus deck has lifted into a higher stratocumulus
deck with drying being offset by convection driven by the heating
of the day. The drying is starting to wind as we`re seeing some
decrease in coverage south of Denver and near the eastern border.
This trend will continue, but we probably won`t see a big decrease
in the cloud cover until the heating turns off with sunset. With
the cool dry air, temperatures should drop a bit more than we had
forecast in the mountain valleys. There could be some patchy fog
in the coldest spots on the plains, but we expect the stratus to
persist over the southern fringe of our area where there is more
moisture, and further north probably enough drying to prevent
widespread fog development.

Wednesday will be warmer with drier air mixing down across most of
the area and southwest flow aloft increasing. We`ll approach
critical fire weather conditions over the mountains for a few
hours. For Thursday into Friday, an upper ridge will move from the
Rockies onto the plains. High clouds will spread over the area
from southwest to northeast on Thursday, with increased humidities
over the mountains, but not much chance of rain yet. On Friday and
Saturday, moisture will continue to increase although the cloud
cover will limit the amount of instability. Scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms can be expected over the mountains, but
rainfall should generally be light. The plains will have the
clouds, but still little or no rain.

On Sunday, a shortwave should pass north of Colorado, with the
tail end enough to provide a better chance of showers for the
plains. It still doesn`t look like much though. There should also
be a front to drop temperatures on the plains 10 degrees or so.

There are discrepancies in the structure of the upstream trough
after that. There`s probably some initial drying behind the Sunday
shortwave, for less or no shower activity. We could have another
shortwave Tuesday, or just increasing southwest flow aloft. NBM
holding lower elevation temperatures in the 70s with only slight
chance PoPs looks good.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 726 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The pesky Stratocumulus deck, BKN-OVC045-050, is slow in
dissipating at DIA. Models show is ending around 04Z-05Z later
this evening. Models show weak normal drainage pattern winds at
DIA by 06Z tonight. Once the the Strata-Cu deck ends there will be
no ceiling issues at the airport overnight or on Wednesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gimmestad
AVIATION.....rjk