514
FXUS65 KBOU 022340
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
540 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather returns for the majority of
  the week ahead. Record/near record warmth next Monday.

- A few showers expected Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves
  across.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Dry and unseasonably warm autumn weather will persist through the
week ahead. For tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail with a
dry airmass and upper level ridging in place. There is still some
low level moisture over southeast Colorado, combined with
radiational cooling should support patchy/areas of fog from Limon
southward.

Saturday will be warm and dry, but a weak dry cool front will push
across the plains during the day. Despite this front, we`ll see a
well mixed airmass and thus temperatures climbing well above
seasonal normals and into the lower to mid 80s over most of the
plains. Northerly breezes gusting to around 20-25 mph will bring
elevated fire weather conditions to the plains east of I-25. For
Sunday, temperatures will be just a tad cooler in the post-
frontal airmass. An isolated shower/weak storm will be possible in
the mountains mainly south of I-70, with just enough moisture
building under the ridge.

Monday will likely feature the warmest day of October, with
excellent model agreement that we`ll reach the mid to upper 80s
across the plains and I-25 Corridor. That pushes us near record
highs for the date. The record high for both Denver and Fort
Collins is 87F set in 2024 so we should be very close to that, but
Boulder`s record is 90F set in 1947 and doubt we would touch that
given thermal profiles and only light downslope flow. Once again,
we can`t rule out a late day shower over the high country given
such strong heating and a little moisture getting trapped under
the ridge.

A weak disturbance is still on track to push across the state by
Tuesday, which will bring a chance of showers and a weak storm or
two to the mountains. With a little forcing to work with, I
wouldn`t be surprised to see a couple sneak onto the adjacent
plains before ending Tuesday night.

Models maintain excellent agreement on the synoptic pattern with
generally flat upper level ridging and light downslope flow into
late next week. That would spell a continuation of much above
normal temperatures and more dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Breezy
south winds will continue at KAPA and KDEN through roughly 05Z
this evening. Winds will then start to weaken and turn more
southwesterly for the overnight period. At KBJC, current southeast
winds will lighten and turn west/southwest around 04Z. A weak
front will move through the area late tomorrow morning. Winds will
start to turn clockwise around 15Z, becoming north/northeast by
17Z. Winds will gradually become more easterly through the
afternoon and into the evening tomorrow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AP