559
FXUS65 KBOU 141745
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1045 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will remain in
  place through most of the upcoming weekend.

- The next system will bring a chance of precipitation to much of
  the forecast area Sunday night into Monday, with a few inches
  of snow and generally minor travel impacts for the high country.

- Cooler and unsettled weather at times next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Another warm and dry day is on tap for Friday, and for the most
part the upcoming weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Some
high level enhanced wave clouds along the Front Range could keep
temperatures from absolute maximums Friday, but it will still be
well above normal with highs pushing into the lower to mid 70s
over most of the plains. We have shaved a couple degrees from the
forecast temps in the northern I-25 Corridor where weak inversions
could hold due to the high clouds.

On Saturday, a weak backdoor cool front has reasonable potential
to drop high temperatures a few degrees, but upper 60s would still
be well above normal for this time of year. Sunday still looks
mild as well since the ejecting upper level low from off the
California Coast is almost certainly to arrive later in the day to
Sunday night. This delay was the big change in yesterday`s
forecast - which still seems on target. Thus, we won`t have much
chance of precipitation in the forecast til late Sunday afternoon
but mainly Sunday night and Monday morning when the weakening
upper level trough finally ejects northeast across the Central
Rockies. Ensembles have come in relatively good agreement with
this feature, but precipitation chances will depend on exactly how
far south the best lift occurs. We`ll likely be on the southern
edge of the better lift/moisture, but enough to bring a few inches
of snow to the mountains and some minor travel impacts. The
plains will likely see scattered rain showers, with the highest
probability north of I-70. Temperatures will be considerably
cooler with the passage of the trough, so Monday`s highs will
settle back toward normal (lower to mid 50s on the plains and I-25
Corridor).

Similar cool readings will persist into Tuesday, with a gradual
cooling trend noted in ensemble averages through the middle of
next week. The next storm system that bears watching is the trough
arriving toward late Wednesday or Thursday. So far, the majority
of solutions is for an open trough with mainly light precipitation
in the form of rain or snow, but there are a few deeper/stronger
runs that would arrive later Thursday with potential for the first
accumulating snow across the I-25 Corridor and plains. The models
have certainly been quite unsteady lately wrestling with the
pattern change and the longwave trough entering the western United
States. Whatever the case, cooler and somewhat unsettled weather
lies ahead, and could quite possibly last through Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1045 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Southwest winds were more persistent
as of this writing (1745Z), but with more sunshine we do
anticipate more mixing and thus a higher chance (60%) that winds
turn more west/northwest at KDEN through 20Z. But a 40% chance
they just become light and VRB by 20Z. KBJC is seeing gustier
winds, and those should decrease a little with less of a mountain
top stable layer this afternoon. However, still expect some
gustiness (~25 kts) there til ~02Z. Winds are more likely to
become variable by 00Z-01Z at KDEN and KAPA, before returning to
normal S/SW winds 02Z-14Z Saturday. A weak backdoor cold front and
northwest winds across the Cheyenne Ridge on Saturday increase
the chances of an anticyclone east of Denver, so will have SE
winds developing by mid afternoon (~21Z) Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20