291
FXUS65 KBOU 132043
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
143 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will remain in
  place through most of the upcoming weekend.

- The next system will bring a chance of precipitation to much of
  the forecast area Sunday night into Monday, with a few inches
  of snow and generally minor travel impacts for the high country.

- Cooler and unsettled weather at times next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Another warm and dry day is on tap for Friday, and for the most
part the upcoming weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Some
high level enhanced wave clouds along the Front Range could keep
temperatures from absolute maximums Friday, but it will still be
well above normal with highs pushing into the lower to mid 70s
over most of the plains. We have shaved a couple degrees from the
forecast temps in the northern I-25 Corridor where weak inversions
could hold due to the high clouds.

On Saturday, a weak backdoor cool front has reasonable potential
to drop high temperatures a few degrees, but upper 60s would still
be well above normal for this time of year. Sunday still looks
mild as well since the ejecting upper level low from off the
California Coast is almost certainly to arrive later in the day to
Sunday night. This delay was the big change in yesterday`s
forecast - which still seems on target. Thus, we won`t have much
chance of precipitation in the forecast til late Sunday afternoon
but mainly Sunday night and Monday morning when the weakening
upper level trough finally ejects northeast across the Central
Rockies. Ensembles have come in relatively good agreement with
this feature, but precipitation chances will depend on exactly how
far south the best lift occurs. We`ll likely be on the southern
edge of the better lift/moisture, but enough to bring a few inches
of snow to the mountains and some minor travel impacts. The
plains will likely see scattered rain showers, with the highest
probability north of I-70. Temperatures will be considerably
cooler with the passage of the trough, so Monday`s highs will
settle back toward normal (lower to mid 50s on the plains and I-25
Corridor).

Similar cool readings will persist into Tuesday, with a gradual
cooling trend noted in ensemble averages through the middle of
next week. The next storm system that bears watching is the trough
arriving toward late Wednesday or Thursday. So far, the majority
of solutions is for an open trough with mainly light precipitation
in the form of rain or snow, but there are a few deeper/stronger
runs that would arrive later Thursday with potential for the first
accumulating snow across the I-25 Corridor and plains. The models
have certainly been quite unsteady lately wrestling with the
pattern change and the longwave trough entering the western United
States. Whatever the case, cooler and somewhat unsettled weather
lies ahead, and could quite possibly last through Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR will persist through the period with only FEW-SCT clouds above
10,000 ft AGL for the Denver TAF sites. ACARS soundings show we`ve
nearly broken the low level inversion and W/NW flow just off the
deck. With further mixing, expect W/NW winds to prevail through
the afternoon. However, there`s a 20-30% chance of VRB winds or
even a weak easterly component as some models suggest ribbons or
channels of W/NW winds. We then expect winds to become light/vrb
by 00Z before returning to normal S/SW winds by 02Z. Those winds
are almost certain to persist through the night and even through
18Z Friday before becoming light and VRB Friday afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20