357
FXUS65 KBOU 301126
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
526 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances shift northeast today, with a few strong/severe
  thunderstorms again possible over far northeastern Colorado.

- Drier weather will prevail for all areas on Sunday, with a
  return to daily shower/thunderstorm potential each afternoon
  starting Monday under continued warm temperatures.

- Gradual warming trend expected for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Today should be the last day of what`s been a fairly active
stretch of weather over the past several days.

Guidance swings the main piece of a cutoff low across southern
Wyoming, with a broad area of PVA/CVA across our forecast area. At
the surface, a broad region of low pressure stretching from
northeast Wyoming towards to the CO/KS border will remain fairly
stationary during the day. We should see a better defined dryline
develop during the day as a drier mid-level airmass advects into
the region and mixes down to the surface. As a result, chances for
precipitation across the Denver metro/I-25 corridor will be lower
than the previous couple of days, but forecast soundings do hint
at some inverted-V profiles... leading to at least some potential
for a couple of high-based, gusty showers.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the dryline, rich boundary layer
moisture will remain in place, reinforced by the southeasterly
surface flow across most of the Great Plains. Most guidance has
dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s in the early afternoon,
leading to MLCAPE near 1000-2000 J/kg. Unlike the last few days,
there should be an increase in the 700-500mb flow in response to
the approaching upper trough axis... leading to longer, straight
line hodographs that would favor splitting supercells. Given steep
2-6km AGL lapse rates (>8 C/km) and at least modest shear (0-6km
shear near 30-35kt), afternoon convection would generally favor a
large hail threat to the north and east of wherever the
dryline/surface convergence sets up during the mid-afternoon
hours. A couple of landspouts would also be possible as convection
initially develops in an area of rich surface vorticity, though
0-3km CAPE is not particularly impressive. Of note, it is
interesting to once again see the HRRR remaining far more
aggressive with the degree of mixing in our CWA, which would push
the severe threat out into Nebraska.

Sunday should be quieter across the region as the upper trough
lifts northward and stalls over the northern Rockies, leading to a
drier zonal flow across the state. Temperatures should return to
the low to mid 80s across the plains.

The overall flow aloft should turn a bit more southwesterly on
Monday, while easterly surface flow should advect in a bit of
moisture across the plains. A weak shortwave should be enough for
some scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours.

By Tuesday and beyond, there`s still not much of a signal in the
long term pattern. Generally light/zonal flow is expected, with a
few weak shortwaves tracking near the forecast area. While details
remain rather hazy, the overall setup would suggest at least a
chance of afternoon showers/storms most days, though the chance of
any meaningful/widespread rainfall remains rather low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Light west winds this morning are
expected to gradually turn clockwise through the early afternoon
hours. A few high-based showers could produce some briefly
variable/gusty winds at the terminals, generally between about
21-01z this afternoon.

A gradual return to west/southwest winds is expected late this
evening into Sunday, with speeds again fairly light.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Hiris