226
FXUS65 KBOU 051756
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver CO
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1056 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer today over the urban corridor and plains.

- Scattered light snow showers for the mountains through Friday,
  with a shot of moderate snow Friday night. Chance of light snow
  for the weekend with a better chance of accumulating snow
  Monday night and Tuesday.

- Chance of light snow over the plains Saturday into Sunday.

- Temperatures will cool off to below normal readings from
  Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

The cold air is being a bit stubborn. We`ve started to see a bit
more southwest wind south of Denver, but that inspired a light
north wind again in the cold air. Centennial airport was 45
degrees at midnight, but is now 30. We`ve been watching for any
fog formation just north of Denver potentially impacting the
airport, but dew points have been dropping along with the
temperatures, and it`s looking like it`s just too dry to have much
fog. There is some stratus across the northeast corner as the
southeast winds there are bringing in some low level moisture.

We do still expect the cold air to start eroding from the
southwest by mid morning. This may happen a few hours later than
what we had forecast. But by late morning, we should have
increasing west winds across the I-25 corridor with temperatures
around 60. There should be lots of 30-40 mph gusts, and some 50
mph gusts at the peak in the early to mid afternoon wouldn`t be
surprising. Without much wave amplification, mountain winds won`t
be too much stronger in most areas, but over the higher mountains
the flow would support 40-60 mph winds. Fully mixing down from the
very warm air at mountaintop could support highs around 70, but
there is some cold advection during the day. We`ll probably have
at least mid 60s. The winds should be slow to die this evening,
but a backdoor cold front will bring in colder temperatures to the
northeast corner again late tonight. Quite the swing out there,
from lows near 10 to possibly 60 degrees, and then maybe back into
the teens late tonight.

Not much in the way of moisture upstream from the mountains right
now, though there is a little cloud hanging to the ridges around
North Park. We trimmed PoPs back, especially for this morning.
There is a little more moisture and a little instability behind
the trough axis for this afternoon and evening, so a chance of a
couple inches of snow in those areas still looks alright. There
will be less for the mountains around I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Models have a strong zonal jet maximum over the CWA Thursday
through Friday. Weak upper troughing is indicated overnight Friday
into Saturday. There is upward vertical velocity for the CWA
Thursday through Friday night. In the lower levels, there is a
decent Denver cyclone progged for Thursday afternoon. A cold front
pushes down across the CWA Friday night. There is a bit of a
mountain wave set-up for Friday, but it looks like the stronger
westerly winds will stay at ridge top.

For moisture and pops, Thursday is pretty dry for all the CWA.
Moisture increases a little Friday, but more significantly Friday
night.  There should be decent orographic enhancement as well Friday
night with the ridge top winds getting west-northwesterly.
There could be a good, but brief, shot of snow in the mountains from
03Z-09Z Friday night/Saturday morning.  It bears watching.  For the
plains, moisture and pops are not great. The NBM in the GFE grids
does show 10-40% pops for the western plains Friday night into
Saturday morning, but confidence is not great.

For temperatures, readings over the plains will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s on Thursday, then they warm up into the mid 50s to
lower 60s for Friday.

For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models still show a
jet maximum over the forecast area into early Sunday.  West-
southwesterly flow aloft is still pretty strong through Sunday
night, but on the decrease. An upper trough moves into Colorado later
Monday into Tuesday, with model agreement breaking down through that
time frame.  The best chances of snow in the mountains are on
Saturday and Tuesday.  For the plains, Saturday`s snow chances don`t
look very good. Yesterday`s 00Z model runs indicated better chances.
Models now show limited QPF over the plains Monday night and
Tuesday. Overall it looks unsettled and cooler for the weekend well
into next week, but an organized decent snow maker is not obvious.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions and dry weather anticipated at the TAF sites this
forecast period. Mountain snows and VFR ceilings develop this
afternoon, however, there is a medium to high chance that these
both stay to the west of all of the sites. Strong westerly winds
remain the main focus this period, especially this afternoon
into the early evening. No real big changes to the TAFs with
regards to speeds and gusts, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 kt
and with gusts up to 40 to 45 kt still likely this afternoon.
Winds lessen during the overnight hours, and then with a wind
shift expected early Thursday morning. While confidence is high
with this wind shift, confidence remains low with respect to
exact direction and speeds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...rjk
AVIATION...WFO PUB