444
FXUS65 KBOU 010843
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
243 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier conditions expected from Tuesday through
  Friday, with only a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly
  over the higher terrain.

- Return of better moisture by the weekend with an increasing
  chance for showers and thundeerstorms across the high country.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

SW flow aloft will remain over the area today with drier air
spreading across the area.  Thus, will see much lower chances for
showers/tstms this aftn. MLCAPE over the far ern plains will range
from 1000-1500 j/kg with bulk shear around 30 kts.  At this time,
can`t rule out an isold stronger storm or two over the far ern plains
late this aftn into the early evening hours.  Over the higher
terrain only isold to widely sct showers/tstms are expected this
aftn. Highs today will stay near seasonal levels.

For Wed and Thu, dry air in SW flow aloft will remain over the area
with only a slight chc of aftn showers/tstms, mainly over the higher
terrain.  Temperatures will be warmer as readings rise into the
upper 80`s to lower 90s across the plains.

By Fri, the flow aloft will become more SSW. Overall, it still looks
mainly dry with only a slight chc of showers/tstms mainly over the
higher terrain.  Highs on Fri will be in the lower to mid 90`s
across nern CO.

For the weekend through Labor Day, an upper level high will be over
the central US and expand into the srn Rockies, as an upper level
low is near the West Coast. As a result, SSW flow aloft will
remain over the area. Both the ECMWF and GFS show some influx of
monsoon moisture beginning on Sat and continuing thru Labor Day.
Thus will keep in a chc of showers/tstms each day over the higher
terrain with a slight chance across the plains. Temperatures will
remain above normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Winds will go light drainage by 07z and then trend to light and
variable by 14z Tue.  By early aftn winds will switch to a light
eastrly firection and then N/NNE by 22z. There is a 10 percent chc
-shra from 23Z to 02z so have included a prob30.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK