788
FXUS65 KBOU 032336
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
536 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue today with an isolated severe
  storm or two over the plains with damaging winds the primary
  threat.

- Trending warmer and drier for Thursday and Friday with only a
  slight chance of thunderstorms.

- Afternoon high temps to reach the mid 90s across the plains this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over far southeast
Colorado with plenty of high level moisture. This is helping to
produce high level cirrus clouds across the I-25 corridor and
eastern plains. Temperatures are lagging the hourly forecast
temperatures by 1-3 F and instability may end up being slightly
lower than modeled especially from Denver International Airport
and eastward and southward. Water vapor also shows a shortwave
trough over far northwest Colorado which is approaching the
northwestern side of our CWA. This is providing some forcing to
help develop storms over the mountains of Colorado. Storms in
Larimer and Weld Counties may grow strong this afternoon with
strong wind gusts around 55 mph possible. A severe wind gust of 60
mph or two could be reported but this is not a day with an
organized severe threat due to limited wind shear. Another area of
storms may form on a boundary currently in Elbert and eastern
Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Later this evening, a cluster of
storms will eventually work its way through Morgan and Logan
Counties before largely dissipating before it reaches further
eastward.

The shortwaves will move east of Colorado on Thursday with slight
ridging building in aloft. There will be some morning low clouds
or fog in Lincoln and Elbert Counties but the impacts from that
will be minimal. The slight ridging aloft will help turn 700 mb
winds to the west across the plains with warmer temperatures than
today. These conditions will allow the majority of the moisture to
mix out across the I-25 corridor and plains tomorrow leading to
warm temperatures in the upper 80s and drier conditions. Isolated
showers and storms may still develop late tomorrow
afternoon/evening but most of these will have more wind than rain
within them.

Models have decent agreement that storms in Wyoming and Nebraska
will produce an outflow boundary Thursday night that will move
through northeast Colorado Friday morning. This will keep
conditions very slightly cooler on Friday in our forecast area and
will increase moisture. There will be healthy instability across
the plains although it will largely be capped. While there is not
much support from model guidance to show there will be scattered
thunderstorms, it seems more likely than not, strong to
potentially severe storms will develop in Elbert and Lincoln
Counties Friday afternoon.

Flow aloft over the western US will become much more amplified
this weekend. A trough will move onshore over the West Coast and a
ridge will strengthen and expand over the central US. Colorado
will be under the western edge of this ridge which will lead to
compressional heating. High temperatures will soar into the mid
90s in the urban corridor this weekend. The high could get close
to setting a record in Denver with the current forecast of 94
being 1 degree shy of the daily record of 95. A record high likely
won`t be set on Sunday as the daily record high is 98.

Monday will likely be cooler with scattered storms around. There
will be a severe threat on Monday but it is too early to tell the
areas that will be most impacted and the strength of the storms.

A mini early season heat wave is possible across northeast
Colorado Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The 75th
percentile on the ECMWF ensembles has a high of 100 F in Denver
for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Current
radar shows thunderstorms in progress east of KDEN. These
thunderstorms have created several outflow boundaries that
converged over KDEN in the last hour causing some gusty winds of
around 20 kts. Tonight, winds will quickly drop below 12 kts and
turn to drainage, especially by 2z to 4z.

Tomorrow will feature increasing high level clouds once again by
midday with winds generally northwesterly to northerly. For
tomorrow afternoon, model soundings continue to show dry lower
levels and DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. Some virga showers are
possible that could produce gusty outflow winds to around 30 kts.
Winds will weaken to around 10 kts and turn to drainage tomorrow
evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...MV