211
FXUS65 KBOU 272329
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
529 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low elevation rain showers/weak thunderstorms and mountain snow
  expected tonight and tomorrow.

- More active pattern continues through the week with multiple
  precipitation chances.

- Warmer and drier conditions expected by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows vast improvements over this morning`s
dense fog that crept its way into metro Denver and the
surrounding suburbs for the morning commute. While some stratus
remain in place south of Denver and along the Palmer Divide, skies
over the northern plains have cleared out and allowed for
temperatures to warm into the mid 40s early this afternoon. Areas
along and just north of the Palmer remain rather chilly, with
observations showing things have yet to climb out of the 30s as of
11 am. Have lowered temperatures slightly in these areas to
account for the lack of surface heating in these locations.

Things finally start to pick up along the southern tier, bringing a
more active pattern across Colorado, with multiple precipitation
chances expected throughout the extended forecast period. Beginning
this afternoon, another shortwave is expected to move across the
Rockies that will bring mountain snow and rain showers to the lower
elevations. A few thunderstorms or even some thundersnow can`t be
ruled out this afternoon and evening as showers move from west to
east across the forecast area. Can`t rule out some localized heavier
convective snow showers in the high country later today and tomorrow
that could make for some slick conditions, but most impacts would be
across the high mountain passes, and generally north of I-70. Snow
totals between today and Tuesday will range from 4 to 7 inches
mainly above 9,000 feet, with some locally higher amounts at our
highest elevations, and some lighter amounts down to elevations
around 8,000 to 8,500 feet. Most areas across the plains that see
showers can expect a few hundredths, but some areas may see some
locally higher amounts up to around a half inch between today and
tomorrow.

By Wednesday, zonal flow aloft will start to decrease and
temperatures will warm up to near seasonal values. Another shortwave
is progged to move across the Rockies that will bring more afternoon
showers and weak thunderstorms, with continued light snow showers to
the mountains. A cold front is expected to move across the forecast
area Wednesday evening that will bring cooler temperatures for
Thursday and upslope flow behind it. This will bring widespread
precipitation chances to the forecast area, but highest PoPs are
expected for the southern foothills and Palmer Divide through
Thursday.

While there are still uncertainties with the exact track and
strength of the upper-level low expected to move across Baja
Thursday, trends do now seem to agree that this will take a more
southern track than previously advertised, and areas south of us
will benefit from the higher precipitation amounts. While we may
miss out on the highest QPF amounts, the latest NBM does show our
southern tier of counties still has a 60-80% chance of 24-hour QPF
totals greater than .5" through Thursday evening. Due to the
continued elevated moisture and cooler temperatures, no critical
fire weather conditions are expected through the week! A warming
trend looks likely on the other end of the mid- to end-week system
that will bring warmer temps and drier conditions for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered showers will be around through 04z with ceilings
lowering to 2000 ft after 04z. In addition, may see ceilings down
to 1000 ft at times thru 08z. Ceilings will stay around 2000 ft
thru 15z before rising up to 4000 ft after 15z. There will be
another chc for showers after 19z.

Winds will be E/ESE thru 02z and then become more ESE/SE the rest
of the night. On Tue winds will become light NNW/N by 14z. A cold
front will move across by 19z with winds becoming more NNE thru
the aftn.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...RPK