133
FXUS65 KBOU 091744
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1044 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record warmth possible next work week with dry conditions.

- Tuesday and Friday will see elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions due to very mild, dry, and breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 238 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Strong northwesterly flow throughout the troposphere is over
northeastern Colorado currently. Gusts have reached 50-55 mph
across the far northeast plains. Gusts along the I-25 corridor
have generally stayed below 40 mph. These gusts will stick around
until sunset (~5pm) and then will rapidly weaken as mixing
deteriorates.

Tonight, clear skies and light winds will lead to chilly
temperatures. Some of the usual cold spots on the plains, like
Greeley and Limon, will see lows in the teens. The cool air
remains in place tomorrow as highs will generally stay in the
upper 40s to around 50 across the plains.

A strong and broad ridge aloft will be over Colorado Monday
through Friday. Confidence in near-record highs is growing as
ECMWF ensembles have almost all members showing a high of 68 and
above in Denver for ever single day of the work week. There is no
chance of precipitation and relative humidity will be very low.
With such mild and dry conditions, the concern becomes fire
weather. Luckily, winds will be light Monday, Wednesday, and
Thursday and no critical fire weather conditions are expected.
Winds will be gustier on Tuesday and especially Friday. Elevated
fire weather conditions will occur on Tuesday and Friday appears
it could have critical fire weather conditions across the plains
if the southerly winds do materialize.

The variance in the ensembles guidance grows greatly starting next
weekend. This is because a trough will move onshore across the
West Coast of the US and will move towards Colorado by late
Saturday. Most ensembles seem to weaken this trough and have it
largely miss Colorado. If this were to happen, mild temperatures
and dry conditions would continue across the plains. Some ensemble
members take a stronger trough that cuts off and moves into or
near Colorado. Widespread precipitation would be possible in those
scenarios. The variables that seem to have the highest confidence
are healthy mountain snowfall and windy conditions across our
entire forecast area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light
throughout the TAF period with speeds less than 10 knots. Normal
diurnal wind patterns will exist.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Danielson