260
FXUS65 KBOU 092058
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
258 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of a couple severe storms over the northeast plains by
  this evening.

- Continued isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the
  next few days. Better chances for rainfall Thursday through
  Friday.

- Warm weather continues all week, with 90F possible Wednesday and
  Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures this weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

A weak upper level ridge axis continues to drift eastward today. A
weak mid-level trough, combined with modest instability across the
region, has allowed for widely scattered convection to develop
across our forecast area over the last couple of hours... and this
should continue through at least the early evening. Chances for
meaningful rainfall will be fairly low today, but we could see a
couple stronger storms further east (along/east of an Akron to
Limon line) where there`s a little more instability and deep layer
shear. Short term guidance isn`t particularly bullish with the
threat and with the better severe environment further east, I
suspect we`ll get a couple strong storms with a brief hail/wind
threat before they drift out of the CWA.

The forecast pattern the rest of the week still looks fairly
straightforward, as deep trough over the Mountain West develops
and stalls out. Guidance shows near to above normal moisture
across the region, but with daily chances for showers/storms. The
better chances will be over the far western edges of the CWA, with
lower chances along and east of the I-25 corridor. With the
increased southwesterly/downslope flow, we`ll also see
temperatures warm slightly... with some guidance hinting at 90F
highs both tomorrow and Thursday over most of the metro/plains.
It`s been quite some time since we`ve seen a 90F high in Denver
(August 21st), but 90s in early/mid September isn`t particularly
rare.

The upper trough should eventually eject into the northern
Rockies/Great Plains by Friday or Saturday. With the increase in
PVA/QG ascent, there would be better support for convection across
the lower elevations, though most guidance is still fairly dry
overall. PoPs will at least go up 10-20% compared to
Wednesday/Thursday, but at this point the trough passage won`t be
too impressive. On the other hand, the shift to a cooler zonal
flow should get temperatures closer to normal (upper 70s to low
80s).

Forecast certainty decreases quite a bit beyond the trough
passage, with significant differences in the upper level pattern
by Monday/Tuesday of next week. The NBM/multi-model mean appears
good enough in this period and few changes were made beyond the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Winds are
currently light and variable but should slowly turn to more of a
light easterly component during the afternoon. Still looks like a
modest threat of variable/gusty winds from high-based
showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon into the early evening,
and the PROB30s were not changed.

Drainage winds should develop again later this evening, with winds
turning light and variable again late tomorrow morning. Additional
convection and a weak Denver Cyclone will be possible tomorrow
near or after 18z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Hiris