647
FXUS65 KBOU 302326
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
526 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form this afternoon
  and early evening. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail
  with the stronger storms.

- Slightly warmer and drier Sunday through Tuesday.

- Wednesday and Thursday will see a chance of storms with a cold
  front passage at some point during the two days.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western
Nebraska and South Dakota with Colorado under slight subsident
flow behind this trough. Water vapor imagery also shows much drier
air aloft than yesterday. Despite the drier air and subsidence,
cooler temperatures aloft has allowed some low level instability
to form with up to 1,500 j/kg of surface based CAPE across the
eastern plains. This instability from daytime heating had lead to
the development of scattered showers and storms across our
forecast area. These storms may produce brief heavy rainfall,
small hail, and lightning. Around sunset, the showers and storms
will dissipate due to the loss of instability and the rest of the
night will be dry.

A ridge over the Intermountain West will strengthen and become
more broad Sunday through Tuesday. This will provide subsident
flow to our area. With northwest winds in the low levels, the
moisture will mostly leave our forecast area as afternoon relative
humidity will drop to 20-30%. Therefore, dry weather is expected
for the vast majority of our forecast area although the mountains
could see a few raindrops each afternoon. Temperatures will remain
a few degrees below normal but will trend warmer.

A very strong trough will be over the Great Lakes on Wednesday and
Thursday. The trough may produce small shortwaves that will near
northeast Colorado and provide weak forcing to our area. In
addition, a cold front will move through our forecast area at some
point on Wednesday or Thursday. This will push cooler air into the
area along with better moisture. Isolated showers and storms will
develop each afternoon.

The ridge over the Intermountain West will strengthen again on
Friday and will move more directly overhead. This will lead to
warmer temperatures that may reach the upper 80s across the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

TSRA activity is shifting south of I-70 at this time, with mainly
VCSH and scattered -SHRA conditions expected for Denver area
terminals through the next couple of hours. Winds will turn to
drainage this evening, and become N/NE late Sun AM. No convection
is anticipated Sunday, with VFR conditions expected to prevail for
all terminals.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Rodriguez