119
FXUS65 KBOU 311745
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1045 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower elevations remaining warm and dry through this weekend,
  with minor day-to-day temperatures fluctuations.

- Dry and mild pattern in the mountains will be interrupted
  Thursday afternoon into Friday, with light snow expected.
  Greatest potential for travel impacts will be in and near the
  Park Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 105 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025

The tranquil weather pattern will continue into Wednesday as the
ridge axis expands into the Western Slope, pushing highs into the
lower 60`s for most of the plains/urban corridor and 40`s for our
mountain valleys. With this forecast, Denver is projected to wrap
up the month with its second warmest December on record, with
other Front Range locations including cities such as Dillon,
Boulder or Fort Collins making a run for top warmest December.

The mountains remain on track for a spell of winter weather
beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Friday, as the
ridge flattens and allows for a weak wave to advect some increased
moisture into the high country. Most of the snow will be
orographically-forced, generally limiting accumulations outside of
the more favored Park Range, where between 3 and 10" of
accumulation is expected. The I-70 corridor will be more hard-
pressed to see anything as significant, although minor
accumulations will still be capable of impacting travel over the
passes. Snow ratios will be on the lower end of what is typical
for the mountains given the warmer temperatures, and we may even
see more of a wintry mix at times for the valleys during the
warmer hours of the day Friday.

A weak front Thursday evening/night will brush the plains and
allow for slight cooling there, but the impact will diminish with
proximity to the I-25 corridor where downslope flow should dampen
the cooling effect and sustain above-average temperatures. There`s
slim potential for a few drops of rain or a wintry mix across the
Cheyenne Ridge with this feature, but with frontogenesis lacking,
precipitation potential for the lower elevations will be close to
zero during this period.

Transient ridging will move in for Saturday, leading to warm and
dry conditions regionwide. That looks to give way to a more zonal
flow pattern aloft for Sunday onwards, and increased southwest
winds with an approaching modest jet. Ensembles become much
noisier at this point with varying indications as far as jet
positioning/wind strength, moisture availability etc. Close to or
slightly over half favor a return of wetter conditions to our high
country (note: not the lowlands), and a similar proportion
suggest potential for enhanced downslope winds Sunday into early
next week, which could leave the door open to some fire weather
concerns under the warmer and drier scenarios (which the GEFS HDWI
control member alludes too). Either way, an uncertain pattern
past Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1034 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Winds will
remain light and variable for the next few hours before turning
more easterly around 21Z. Winds will gradually turn SE this
afternoon, then south overnight at KDEN and KAPA. Winds at KBJC
will be more SW this afternoon, turning W/NW overnight, before
turning back SW for the morning. A few models are showing isolated
showers tomorrow afternoon. However, confidence is low in any
precipitation making it to the ground, so mention of showers have
been left out of the KDEN TAF for now. Winds will be gusty
tomorrow afternoon from the west around 25kts at KDEN. We could
have occasionally higher gusts in the afternoon if we see some
virga from light showers.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...AP