077
FXUS65 KBOU 151755
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1055 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue today and Sunday.

- Weak storm system still on track to bring light snow to the
  mountains late Sunday into Monday. Minor travel impacts
  possible... mainly Sunday night.

- Cooler and unsettled weather at times next week, but lower than
  normal confidence in the day to day details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 258 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

We`re still on track for a warm weekend, before a gradual pattern
change brings cooler and potentially unsettled weather to most of
the forecast area beginning next week.

Westerly downslope flow across most of the I-25 corridor has led
to very warm overnight temperatures. It`s currently 66F at the
Denver/Central Park station (after recording a low of 49F
earlier!), and low to mid 60s have been noted across a large
portion of the metro. While it`s difficult to put hourly
temperatures into context... unofficial data from the Iowa
State/IEM page suggest that this has been one of the warmest
November nights on record for KBJC... and that`s likely the case
for many other locations west of I-25.

The warm start to the day also would imply that we shouldn`t have
much trouble warming up into the low to mid 70s today, even with
some mid/high cloud cover and 700mb temperatures ~2C cooler than
yesterday. That assumption is largely supported by MOS products...
which were also bullish on yesterday`s highs. Temperatures on
Sunday still look to cool another couple of degrees but will
remain well above normal.

Meanwhile, the initial shortwave tracking across our area still
looks to bring light snow to the mountains with limited QPF over
the lower elevations late Sunday into Monday. As we get into next
week, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast pattern.
I would suggest not taking any single deterministic model run too
seriously until we start to resolve what looks to be a very
complicated upper level pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 125 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

The last of the really mild fall days will likely occur this
weekend, before we settle into a cooler and more active weather
pattern for the latter half of this month. Whether and when that
leads to our first measurable snow in Denver is still up in the
air (pun intended).

For this weekend, the upper level ridge will dominate our weather
through late Sunday, keeping dry and relatively warm weather in
place. A weak backdoor cold front does push across the plains
Saturday morning, offering several degrees of cooling but highs
will still be 12-15 degrees above normal. Similar temperatures can
be expected Sunday. Some uncertainty exists in the temperatures
especially in valley areas depending on amount of high clouds, but
even there we`ll be starting with relatively shallow inversions so
worst case they`re a few degrees below current deterministic
forecasts.

The next chance of precipitation in the forecast arrives late
Sunday, and mostly Sunday night/early Monday as an upper level
low ejects and weakens as it lifts northeast across the Central
Rockies. Ensembles remain in relatively good agreement with this
feature, but precipitation chances will depend on exactly how far
south the best lift occurs. Right now, it still appears we`ll be
on the southern edge of the best combination of lift and moisture,
enough to bring a few inches of snow to the mountains and some
minor travel impacts over/near the passes. The plains will likely
see scattered and mainly light rain showers, with the highest
probability staying north of I-70. Temperatures will turn cooler
with the passage of the trough, but latest runs showed a little
less cooling so both Monday`s and Tuesday`s readings will likely
end up a few degrees above normal.

More uncertainty enters the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday
when the next trough is forecast to arrive. There does seem to be
a trend for a weaker or faster trough that would bring scattered
light precipitation. Only a few of the runs were holding onto
anything more significant or bringing the first measurable
snowfall to Denver area (only ~20% chance). As long as that
system stays progressive (considerable uncertainty here), Friday
would trend toward dry but still cool weather. No matter how this
evolves, cooler and somewhat unsettled weather lies ahead which
could quite possibly last through Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1055 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Winds are starting to become VRB at
this initial 18Z time, and trend should be for a more E or SE
component through 21Z-01Z with hints of a developing anticyclone.
Still some uncertainty of course, but that`s the most likely
outcome with lower probabilities of winds just staying VRB. After
01-02Z, it appears winds will start to trend more SE through 04Z,
and eventually S-SW 05Z-10Z. Most models are still in agreement
with more W/SW then occurring 10Z-18Z, before the gradual
transition back to a more easterly component by 21Z Sunday. Speeds
should stay mostly 10 kts or less, but a chance of 10-15 kt E/SE
winds 21Z-01Z this afternoon. It also appears KBJC winds have
finally decreased and they too should finally conform to lighter
diurnal wind patterns for this TAF period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20