655
FXUS65 KBOU 022348
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
448 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers in the mountains tonight, with additional
  snow accumulations 2 inches or less. Slick travel in spots
  through early Tuesday morning.

- Scattered rain showers and cooler temperatures for the plains. A
  few snowflakes possible for the Palmer Divide. Very windy plains
  through tonight.

- Another chance for some rain and snow for the mountains on
  Wednesday bringing light precipitation amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 216 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The cold front has passed through this morning, bringing widespread
northerly winds of 40-55 mph across the plains this morning and
early afternoon. With boundary layer winds remaining at 40-50 kts
through the rest of the day, surface wind gusts of 40-55 mph, with
localized gusts of 60-65 mph, will continue through the overnight
hours and possibly through early Tuesday morning. The I-25 Corridor
and Denver metro should remain sheltered from the strongest winds,
but still expect gusts of 20-30 mph periodically.

Current radar imagery shows ongoing snow showers across the high
terrain and rainfall/isolated thunderstorms over the plains.
Forecast remains generally on track, although have lowered expected
snowfall amounts for the mountains slightly, as they have struggled
to produce decent snowfall this morning. Observations have only
shown a dusting to 1" with localized amounts up to 2". However, we
should start seeing more snowfall this afternoon and tonight as the
best QG lift from the upper level low will move through. Overall,
expect 2-6" of total snowfall, with localized higher amounts up to
9" confined to the highest elevations. For the plains, scattered
rain showers will continue with generally 0.1-0.4" of QPF expected.
Upsloping will help the Palmer Divide receiver higher rainfall
amounts than Denver metro and northern plains (the northern I-25
Corridor unfortunately expected to remain mostly dry due to
downsloping from Cheyenne Ridge). However, CAMs have honed in on
portions of the eastern plains (eastern Adams, western Washington
and northern Lincoln counties area) receiving localized higher
amounts of rainfall due to upsloping, with DESI probabilities
showing a 40-50% of rainfall amounts >0.50" by Tuesday morning. In
addition, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the
Palmer Divide and the aforementioned area could see rain/snow mix
tonight with the upslope enhancement and near-freezing overnight
temperatures. Modeled Skew-T soundings show a moist vertical profile
below O dg C, with a very shallow "warm" layer at the surface that
will likely melt most of the snowfall. Even if snow makes it to the
surface, warm ground temperatures should keep from any
accumulations.

Expect most of the mountain snow and rain showers across the plains
to be finished by Tuesday morning. However, we will still be breezy
behind the exiting system. Northerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph is
possible across the plains. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as
upper level ridging returns, with forecasted highs in the 50s across
the plains. By Wednesday, a weak upper level trough will race across
Colorado which will bring increased chances for mountain snow and
rain showers across the plains. As of right now, the track of the
system favors precipitation for our southern mountains (I-70
mountain corridor and south), however snowfall amounts will be
light.

Broad upper level ridging will allow near-average temperatures
through the weekend and mostly dry conditions. Ensemble solutions do
hint at an upper level low from the Pacific Northwest tracking
towards the northern Great Plains. As of right now, this system
looks to be too far northeast to bring precipitation to our forecast
area. However, with the increased flow aloft, we could see some
breezy winds across the eastern plains by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 448 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Gusty north winds at KDEN are forecast to continue at KDEN with
occasional gusts of 24-32 kts through about 08Z, although there
could be brief periods of less gusty winds. KBJC and KAPA will be
more sheltered being closer to the foothills, so only a few
lighter gusts (mainly less than 15-20 kts) expected there. Cloud
decks have risen slightly, with visual landings at the present
time. However, clouds are expected to lower again in a deeper but
still moist northerly wind environment. Therefore, we do expect
ceilings to drop to 5000-6000 feet 03z-06Z with pockets of
3000-4000 ft ceilings possible with light shower development in
the area. That could last as late as about 12-13Z, before
ceilings start to lift again and this time break completely by
15Z-17Z. Winds are expected to weaken by 12Z, with only a slight
bump up possible 15Z-17Z before wind speeds steady out from the
NNW around 10 kts thereafter. KBJC is forecast to see a weak
anticyclone (southerly flow) for a few hours later tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...20