710
FXUS65 KBOU 231127
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
527 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More storms on Thursday as monsoonal moisture remains over
  region the region. Storms will be capable of producing heavy
  rainfall along with a localized threat of flash flooding.

- Storm coverage expected to decrease for Friday into Saturday but
  may increase again by Sunday, with highest coverage over the
  higher terrain.

- Temperatures will rise back into the upper 90`s to lower 100`s
  over northeast Colorado for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A weak upper level trough will move across the area today into this
evening.  Considerable monsoon moisture will remain over the area
with PW`s from 150% to 200% above normal. Thus will see another
round of showers and storms across much of the area, with areas
of heavy rainfall, in some places. Flow aloft will increase
today, so storm movements will be faster than the previous two
days. Meanwhile SBCAPE will range of 1500 to 2000 j/kg over the
plains. Shear is a little better this aftn, however, mid level
temps are very warm. Thus, main threat from stronger storms would
be wet microbursts similar to what occurred last evening. As far
as highs, readings will be in the mid 80s to lower 90`s across the
plains.

For tonight, the weak upper level trough will move to the east with
shower and tstm activity gradually ending across the plains by mid
to late evening.

Looking ahead to Fri and Sat, the upper level high will gradually
build back into the area with a decrease in monsoon moisture.
However, there will still be some residual moisture, for sct tstms
in the mtns, especially on Sat. Across the plains, it will be mainly
dry with highs reaching the upper 90`s to lower 100`s on Sat.

For Sun thru next Tue, an upper level high will extend from the
Great Basin across Colorado.  Both the ECMWF and GFS show an
increase in monsoon moisture.  Thus will see an increasing chc for
showers and storms over the higher terrain and across the plains for
Mon and Tue.  Temperatures will continue hot over nern CO Sun and
Mon.  By Mon night into Tue a weak cool front may move across which
would allow for highs to drop back to more seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Winds will be light and variable thru 17z and then become light
north.  By 20z, expect ENE/NE winds.  Sct showers/tstms will move
across as early as 20z at APA and BJC and by 21z at DIA.  This
actovoty may produce brief gusty winds to 40 mph with visibility
down 5 miles in rain. Activity should diminish after 00z although
can`t rule out some lingering showers until 03z.  Winds early
this evening will be NE/ENE but gradually becomer drainage after
03z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK