390
FXUS65 KBOU 031112
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
412 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer Tuesday with elevated fire conditions South Park and at
  lower elevations near the Wyoming-Nebraska border.

- Generally quiet conditions through the next several days.

- Chance of snow showers in the northern mountains on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Surface observations across the plains show widespread temperatures
in the high 70s to low 80s. With the lack of cloud cover and
downsloping winds, we have been able to warm up significantly this
morning. At 82 degrees in Denver, we have broken today`s record high
(78 set in 2008 and 1931) and broken the all time monthly record
high (81 set 11/17/2017). There is still a few hours left of daytime
heating, so we could end up warming another degree or two if
downsloping winds continue into Denver.

Ridging aloft will keep us dry for the beginning of this week.
Overnight tonight, a backdoor cold front associated with a weak
shortwave will usher in cooler air for Monday. Expect temperatures
to be 15-20 degrees cooler, with highs in the low 60s across the
plains and valleys, and 40s to 50s in the higher terrain. Surface
high pressure in Wyoming will track southeast into the Great Plains,
while a lee trough cyclone will develop off the foothills. With the
tightening of pressure gradients between these two air masses,
southeast winds will be gusting up to 30 mph across the eastern
plains.

Above normal temperatures return on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the
mid-level thermal ridge shifts back up over our forecast area. With
cross-barrier flow of 35-45 mph, expect breezy winds across the
higher terrain. Wind prone areas adjacent to the foothills may also
see brief downsloping winds Tuesday morning. Localized elevated fire
weather conditions are possible in the mountains, particularly in
South Park where minimum relative humidity values will be in the
teens, and winds gusting up to 25 mph at times.

A shortwave trough will trek across the United States on Thursday.
However, ensemble guidance has continued to trend towards a more
northerly track of the system, limiting precipitation chances for
the higher terrain. NBM PoPs have 20-30% across the northern
mountains, which seems reasonable especially for the Park Range,
which would have the best change for light snow showers due to
upslope enhancement. Over the weekend, another shortwave will track
just north of Colorado, with another chance for orographic snow
showers in the northern mountains. A cold front associated with this
system will bring temperatures closer to seasonal normals along
the plains. With upper level ridging building after this shortwave
passes, precipitation is not expected for the plains for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 407 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Winds have become SE to S and will continue thru 17z.  Winds will
become light WSW by 17z and then trend more NW by 19z. By 02z
winds will trend back to SW and then become drainage by 04z.
Otherwise VFR conditions will remain in place.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...RPK