607
FXUS65 KBOU 251814
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1214 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms again on Wednesday, with isolated severe storms
  possible, mainly in the northeastern corner.

- Drier Thursday through Sunday with warming temperatures and only
  isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Added some patchy fog to some of the plains for 4 to 5 hours
early Wednesday morning based of various model cross sections and
soundings.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Previous Discussion issued 816 AM MDT...

Things are still on track for afternoon showers and storms today,
with the severe threat for large hail (2"+) and damaging winds
(60-70 mph)our main focus, however, a tornado still can`t be
ruled out. We do have some low clouds to contend with that may
inhibit surface heating through the morning, which may have some
impacts on placement and timing of storms, but we are expecting
convection to begin early this afternoon (between 1-2PM) and move
across the urban corridor and metro Denver fairly early after
initiation begins. Recent ACARS soundings show a well-capped
environment this morning, but forecast soundings indicate this
will erode through the morning, and instability will increase,
with over 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE possible by early this afternoon. We
will have plenty of moisture in place as current dewpoints are
already in the upper 50s/low 60s across our lower elevations, not
too shabby for Colorado! Today will be a good day to keep vehicles
parked in the garage and have multiple ways to receive weather
alerts! Some small adjustments were made to PoPs grids this
morning, but generally the forecast largely remains on track.

Updated discussion issued 231 PM MDT...
Short Term...

As of 130 PM convection has initiated along the higher terrain and
is moving northeast across the foothills. ACARS soundings show the
cap is eroding over the lower elevations, and we are still expecting
storms to move across the urban corridor in the next hour or two,
with the potential of reaching severe status. The SPC has issued
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the majority of our lower
elevations to continue until 8 PM tonight. As destabilization
continues across the lower elevations, we are expecting storms to
intensify as they move eastward, becoming capable of producing
large hail (1.5" to 2.5") and gusty outflow winds (60 to 70 mph),
with at least a small chance for a brief tornado to touch down.
Storms are expected to move out of the urban corridor by around 6
PM this evening, where they will become more linear in nature,
with wind becoming the primary hazard concern as they move into
northeastern Colorado later this evening.

For Wednesday, one more day of below normal temps and dewpoints in
the 50s and 60s across the plains is expected, with the right
entrance of a near 100 kt jet moving over Colorado throughout the
day, and a surface low in place east of the Rockies. Isolated
afternoon showers and storms are expected once again, with the SPC
placing our northeastern corner in a Marginal Risk for severe
hail and wind gusts. While forecast soundings show sufficient
instability in place by early afternoon (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE), there
is a chance that early morning stratus will limit morning surface
heating, making it difficult to break the cap to get things
started. If the cap is broken, a few multicell clusters will be
possible for the afternoon/evening hours that could produce severe
hail and winds, mainly from eastern Weld and Morgan Counties
eastward.

Long Term...

A warming and drying trend is likely for the second half of the
week, as we transition to a weak zonal flow. A broad ridge axis
is expected to gradually build across the southern CONUS by this
weekend. There`s a good signal for a return to well above normal
temperatures from Thursday into the weekend, with some low/mid 90s
possible on Friday and Saturday. Moisture aloft decreases quite a
bit in this period as well, with only a slight chance of some
weak showers or a storm.

Moisture does attempt to increase across the area by Sunday or
early next week as the flow aloft turns a little more
northwesterly. There should be a gradual increase in
showers/storms across the region in response to the increasing
moisture/instability. Temperatures will also cool a bit but
mid/upper 80s are still forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Low clouds have dissipated as showers and storms have formed over
the foothills. These showers and storms may impact the terminals
this afternoon primarily between 20-00Z. Wind gusts up to 40 knots
are possible but gusts will more likely be around 30-35 knots.
Once the storms pass, VFR conditions and lighter winds are
expected for the rest of the TAF period. Drainage winds will be
light tonight and fog and low clouds are not expected due to
drying air. No storms are expected to impact terminals tomorrow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......rjk
DISCUSSION...Bonner/Hiris
AVIATION...Danielson