182
FXUS65 KBOU 022113
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
313 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday through Thursday will see a chance of isolated showers
  and storms.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across the
  plains on Thursday due to warm, dry, and breezy weather.

- Better coverage of storms and above normal temperatures expected
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Water vapor imagery shows dry air over Colorado with slight
subsident flow. Steep lapse rates have developed over the higher
terrain which is allowing a few showers and weak thunderstorms to
develop. High resolution models have been persistent in showing
some of these showers moving off the higher terrain and over the
I-25 corridor late this evening. Therefore, PoPs were increased to
around 20 percent to indicate a mention of showers and storms in
the forecast. Brief breezy winds will be the main impact from
these storms.

A cold front will move across the eastern plains of Colorado on
Wednesday. This will shift winds to the north with gusts up to 35
mph. A low level inversion will develop which will limit
instability. Therefore, only a couple brief showers are expected
over the higher terrain with the vast majority of the area being
dry.

A strong shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas on
Thursday. This will initially develop more of a westerly,
downslope component to the winds over our forecast area during
the day on Thursday. High temperatures will warm above normal
with the upper 80s across the plains. Some locations may even
reach 90. By the evening, a strong cold front will race through
our forecast area. This may help develop some showers and storms
during the early evening hours.

Friday will be much cooler with highs potentially staying in the
low 70s or even upper 60s across the plains.

A ridge aloft will move more directly over Colorado this weekend.
Easterly winds at the surface will advect in some better dew
points. Showers and storms will increase by Sunday with scattered
convection around. The ECMWF ensembles are now in better agreement
that the middle of next week will be hot. Denver may have highs in
the 90s a couple days next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. The only
concern today will be possible gusty outflow winds from showers
that will near the terminals between 23-01Z this evening. High
resolution models have been persistent in showing showers and
perhaps a weak thunderstorm moving off the higher terrain and
developing an outflow boundary late this afternoon. This outflow
boundary could produce sporadic winds with gusts up to 25 knots.

Tonight, drainage winds are expected. Tomorrow, a cold front will
move through in the morning which will create gusty northerly
winds throughout the day.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Danielson