954
FXUS65 KBOU 101136
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
536 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures to continue today and Tuesday, then
  start to cool Wednesday and fall below normal Thursday.

- Another round of high-based virga showers today. Wind gusts
  of30-45 mph are possible from the showers.

- Slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms over far
  northeast Colorado late this afternoon and evening.

- Monsoon moisture becomes plentiful beginning Wednesday bringing
  daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the rest week
  and weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding are
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The upper level high will continue to be centered over the
Southern and Central Rockies today and Tuesday. Moisturehas
infiltrated the ridge at the mid and upper levels. Satellite
imagery shows a largearea of mid and high clouds over Colorado
and upstream across the Great Basin. This is expected to keep
skies mostly cloudy, though a brief period of partly cloudy skies
is possible. This will allow enough sunshineto push highs into
the mid to upper 90s today. Models show the airmass is a degree or
two warmer today, but the increase in cloud cover should offset
this. Precipitable water values will be 0.6 to 0.9 (in), which is
slightly above normal over the higher terrain but below normal
across the plains. This will yield another round of high-based
virga showers today. DCAPE values will be 600-900 J/kg a little
less than yesterday, which should keep wind gust speeds under 45
mph. Like yesterday, low level moisture may prevail over far
northeast Colorado where one or two strong/severe storms will be
possible. On Tuesday, we`ll see very similar conditions. Cloud
cover may end up being less, and if it is, temperatures could be a
couple of degrees warmer. Another round of high-based virga
showers with gusty winds is also expected.

The upper level high finally weakens and shifts southeast of the
region Wednesday. Flow aloft becomes south-southwest, transporting
monsoon moisture into the area. Moisture will increase slowly at
first, but by Wednesday afternoon precipitable water values will
climb to 120 to 160 percent of normal. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher
terrain during the afternoon and then spread northeast through the
afternoon and evening hours. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will be possible.

For the past couple of days, models have advertised that a
shortwave trough will track across Colorado Thursday
afternoon/evening. Moisture continues to increase with
precipitable water values climbing to 140 to 180 percent of
normal. This should produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated
flooding. It will be much cooler on Thursday with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s across northeast Colorado.

The upper level high is expected to stay over the southeast part
of the country Friday and through next weekend. South-southwest
flow is expected to persist over Colorado and monsoon moisture
will continue to be pulled into the state. Rounds of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs expected to
be in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 536 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Mid and high clouds will continue to stream overhead this morning
and into the early afternoon, but ceilings will remain above
10,000 feet. Southerly winds will linger through 14-15Z, then
become light as they transition to the north to northwest by
18-19Z. Another round of high-based virga showers will occur,
best time being 21-24Z. Dry microbursts will be possible with
gusts up to 40 knots. Wind shifts are very likely from the passing
showers this afternoon and early evening. Once convective winds
die off, southwest winds are expected to prevail overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BM
AVIATION...BM