674
FXUS65 KBOU 162128
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
328 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional severe storm threat across the I-25 corridor and
  plains on this afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be large
  hail and strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

- Active pattern continues into the weekend, with scattered
  afternoon showers and storms each day. Best chance of rain
  across the Front Range/Foothills and South Park most afternoons.

- Trending warmer and drier next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Clouds have slowly eroded this past hour, allowing a brief moment
of surface heating across parts of the foothills and plains.
Current satellite imagery shows convection initiating over the
high country, with a few cells already having some impressive
vertical development as they approach the foothills. However, the
severe weather threat is still conditional at this time due to
the lack of sufficient surface heating. ACARS soundings still show
a well-defined cap in place over the plains, and anvil clouds
from the mountain convection will continue to block sunlight
sporadically.

Areas of further destabilization is expected, with SPC
mesoanalysis page showing 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective
bulk shear up to 40-45 kts over the next few hours. Due to the
expected conditions, some storms could overcome the capped
environment and increase in severity over the I-25 corridor and
into the adjacent plains. Hail up to 2" and winds damaging winds
up to 60 mph are possible with the strongest storms. In addition,
there could be brief moderate to heavy rainfall causing localized
flooding threats. Convection is expected through late tonight,
with showers and thunderstorms gradually weakening and ending from
west to east.

Thursday looks to be much quieter across our area as we will be
under weak westerly/northwesterly flow aloft due to an upper level
ridge building over the southern US. Orographic showers and weak
storms are possible in the afternoon, mainly over South Park and
the southern Front Range Mountains, as there will be drier air
aloft over northern Colorado. Did not make too many changes to the
forecast except for raising temperatures slightly, as hi-res
model guidance has been trending towards warmer temperatures.

Warm temperatures (90+ degrees) will return on Friday and into
next week as the broad upper level ridge amplifies. Ensemble
guidance is in good agreement of embedded shortwaves through the
weekend, creating daily chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Model Skew-T soundings have high LCLs, so gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern. By the beginning of
next week, a warmer and drier trend is likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Stronger tstms this aftn will depend on heating and it`s really
a 50/50 probability if that occurs or not. Have left tempo
between 21z and 01Z for tstms. Lower have scattered out wit just
a mid level deck now.  Winds will stay E or ESE thru the aftn.

Overnight, there will be a weak Denver Cyclone but location isn`t
certain at this point. If winds go W or NW at DIA late tonight
can`t completely rule out some stratus in the 11z to 15Z time
period. Winds tonight will become more southerly and then go
more variable in direction by 14Z Thu.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ideker
AVIATION...RPK