114
FXUS65 KBOU 080021
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
621 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures through Sunday, with isolated to scattered
  afternoon and evening showers for the mountains and parts of the
  plains.

- Summerlike warmth and drier weather next week, with highs into
  the 80s for the lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Satellite shows mid/upper level moisture pushing southeast across
the area. The airmass was slowly destabilizing under daytime
heating, which will support development of isolated to scattered
high based showers and even a lone storm or two. Any convection
will continue well into the evening hours as a speed max/upper
level disturbance drops southeast across the Northern and Central
Rockies. The highest coverage would favor the northeast plains
and mountains, while a downslope component along the Front Range
I-25 Corridor keeps mostly dry weather in place and only an
isolated weak shower or two at most.

On Friday, some mid level moisture will remain over the area but
forecast soundings show more stability due to slight cooling in
the boundary layer. There`s still a slight chance we could pop
some weak convection in/near the foothills, so something to watch.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year.

Saturday should see an uptick in convection coverage and
intensity, as models are more in line with a shortwave dropping
into the area in northwest flow aloft. Instability is expected to
grow to 400-800 J/kg across the plains, so a couple storms in the
late afternoon and evening will have a little more sprightliness
and be capable of producing some small hail and strong outflow
winds to 40-50 mph. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on
Saturday. Then slight cooling will occur behind that disturbance
for Sunday, with generally drier conditions expected due to
increased stability.

The warmest day of the upcoming week (at least from a
probabilistic perspective) is still shaping up to be Monday, when
ensembles have the highest agreement in both ridging and warm
advection. Blended forecasts have trended another degree or two
warmer, with highs now forecast to reach the 85-90 degree range
over most of the plains and I-25 Corridor. While the deterministic
forecasts slide a few degrees in temperatures for Tuesday -
Thursday, that`s only due to uncertainty in the strength of the
ridge. It`s still likely we`ll remain a good 10-15 degrees above
normal for this time period, with highs >80F for the plains and
I-25 Corridor through the end of next week. The chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be remain quite small for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Rain showers have formed mainly across far northern Colorado this
evening. These showers will produce some outflow boundaries that
may impact the terminals with gusty winds. There was enough
confidence in an outflow boundary moving through DEN that a TEMPO
was included for gusts up to 26 knots. The most likely time for an
outflow boundary to move through DEN is 02-04Z but it could occur
anytime between 01-05Z. Gusts are also possible at APA and BJC.

With so much moisture around (dew points in the low to mid 40s
tonight), there will be a small chance (20%) that fog or very low
clouds form. A FEW004 group is in the forecast to give a heads up
on this possibility. The most likely time for the fog would be
between 10-15Z.

Otherwise, there will be VFR conditions and light winds for the
rest of the TAF period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Danielson