756
FXUS65 KBOU 200551
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1151 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few morning showers/storms across our northern tier of
  counties this morning, with potential for a strong to marginally
  severe storm or two over the eastern plains later in the day.
  Otherwise dry for most of the area.

- Expect cooler conditions through Monday, with more limited
  shower and thunderstorm coverage.

- Gradual warming returns Tuesday onwards, with generally isolated
  precipitation chances each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Showers continue to trek across the mountains and northern tier of
our forecast area, associated with the approaching upper-level
trough. As its axis shifts east, we may see a few embedded
thunderstorms in the north/northeast plains after sunrise. Notably
cooler temperatures can be expected across the lower elevations,
where highs may struggle to break the 70 degree mark in the coolest
areas (mainly the Palmer Divide and far NE plains). Most areas will
see reduced CAPE relative to previous days, limiting afternoon
shower/t-storm coverage considerably. Have further reduced PoPs
across our mountains and urban corridor for this period, maintaining
only a very slight chance (15-20%) of precipitation. The axis of
better instability (and shear) will be confined to our eastern
plains, where a few stronger to marginally severe storms may develop.

Transient ridging pushes in for Monday into Tuesday leading to a
gradual rebound in temperatures and comparatively drier conditions.
An isolated shower or storm could make an appearance mainly south of
I-70 Monday, and increasing southwest flow ahead of a developing
closed low over Nevada on Tuesday should promote a few isolated
afternoon showers in the high country. That low is then slated to
lift NE, merging with the broader flow pattern over the Northern
Rockies Wednesday, promoting a slight increase in showers and
thunderstorms predominantly to our mountains, with more isolated
coverage elsewhere.

Behind this, ensemble means favor steadily building high pressure
over Colorado, supporting additional modest warming and potential
for temperatures to return to the 80`s for some of the lower
elevations for the second half of the week. Precipitation chances
will be fairly slim, but enough moisture could remain trapped
beneath the ridge to allow for isolated afternoon showers most
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through
the TAF period. With current drainage winds now favored to hold
through at least 13-14Z, and the transition to NE winds seemingly
delayed until closer to 15Z, the potential for fog and low stratus
this morning appears much reduced. Have thus taken any mention of
this out of the TAFs.

NE flow is expected to hold at the terminals most of the day, with
a gradual shift to a more easterly direction through the
afternoon. Convective potential will be limited, with only a
15-20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...BRQ