645
FXUS65 KBOU 080000
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
500 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with well above normal temperatures through Monday.

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon with a Red Flag
  Warning in effect for the north and northeast plains of
  Colorado.

- Pattern change next week will lead to multiple chances of
  precipitation in the mountains. Best chance for mountain snow
  will be Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue for our
north/northeast plains this afternoon, as gusty winds and dry
conditions prevail. As of noon, gusts in our northern counties were
around 30 to 45mph. Winds will begin decreasing around 4PM and will
quickly drop off after sunset. RHs will continue to lower through
the afternoon, before increasing starting around 5PM.

For Sunday and Monday, above normal temperatures and dry conditions
will continue. Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 10 to 15%
for much of the plains. Luckily, in terms of fire weather concerns,
the winds do look weaker than what we`re experiencing today, so fire
weather conditions will be more limited. However, we will have to
keep an eye on the potential for breezy winds to move into our
northern most counties Monday afternoon. A surface low is expected to
move through northern Wyoming/southern Montana early Monday,
tightening the pressure gradient across the area and increasing
winds. Right now, models are keeping the stronger winds primarily
confined to Wyoming and the higher terrain, but if we do see a
southward progression of the breezier winds, critical fire weather
conditions will be possible Monday afternoon.

A cold front will move through the area on Monday, bringing cooler
temperatures and higher RHs for Tuesday. Models continue to trend
later with the onset of the upcoming system. Pops have been
decreased for Tuesday to account for this. We could still see some
light snow in the mountains on Tuesday, but the better chances for
precip have been pushed to later in the week. Westerly winds will
increase aloft for Wednesday, leading to gusty winds in the
mountains and better orographic lift. Moisture looks to increase for
Wednesday as well, helping to increase our mountain snow chances.
While the snow rates may remain light, the strong winds will
potentially lead to blowing snow and visibility problems for our
mountain roads on Wednesday. Snow is expected to continue on and off
through Thursday for the mountains.

A potent shortwave/trough will approach from the west late Thursday
into Friday, giving the plains their best chance of precip for the
week. There will be decent lift and moisture ahead of the trough,
which could help finally push the better precip chances off the
mountains and into the plains. However, models differ with the
positioning of the shortwave (between models and individual model
runs), which will have a large impact on precip chances and amounts
for both the mountains and the plains. If the trough digs more
south, New Mexico will have the best precip chances. But if we can
get a decent shortwave over Colorado (like the 00Z GFS or 12Z Euro)
we`ll have a much better chance for some precip Thursday through
Friday. Right now, about 1/3 of ensemble members bring a very light
snow to Denver Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 438 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR to persist through the TAF period. Gusty west to WNW winds
have been in place across the TAF sites through the afternoon. A
slightly more WNW push is currently underway for KDEN for the
next hour or two before transitioning to the WSW to drainage for
the overnight hours. High confidence in drainage lingering into
the late morning before winds become light and variable for the
afternoon. Leaning towards a potential NE to E wind transition
beginning around 21/22Z, but winds may just remain light and vrb
with no dominating direction, and are anticipated to remain under
10kts at KDEN/KAPA into the early evening.

For KBJC, westerly winds are expected overnight with low
confidence in a period of stronger westerly gusts developing
between 7-12Z, where gusts to around 25kts would be possible.
Winds should generally be light through the afternoon Sunday, with
low confidence in a prevailing wind direction, but higher
confidence in WSW winds to westerly winds over the NE winds that
are expected at the other TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 5PM today for
portions of the north and northeast Colorado plains. Winds are
breezy across the northern plains and mountains this afternoon,
with gusts around 30 to 45 mph in the area covered by the RFW.
RHs were around 14% to 20% across the plains as of noon, and will
gradually decrease for the next few hours before coming back up
early this evening. Winds will begin to weaken around 4PM and
will quickly drop off after sunset.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ238-
242>244-248>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...AP